| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3? |
Yes |
3,628 |
0.999 |
$3,622.18 |
$1,084.69 |
+42.7% |
| OpenAI IPO before 2027? |
No |
2,715 |
0.835 |
$2,267.15 |
$323.31 |
+16.6% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? |
Yes |
2,306 |
0.825 |
$1,902.47 |
$177.55 |
+10.3% |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? |
Yes |
1,329 |
0.850 |
$1,129.08 |
$68.48 |
+6.5% |
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? |
No |
806 |
0.994 |
$801.09 |
$116.05 |
+16.9% |
| Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? |
No |
903 |
0.785 |
$709.21 |
$411.18 |
+138.0% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? |
Yes |
800 |
0.855 |
$684.00 |
$72.00 |
+11.8% |
| Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? |
Yes |
3,015 |
0.175 |
$527.62 |
$-160.29 |
-23.3% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? |
No |
2,307 |
0.215 |
$496.07 |
$-92.30 |
-15.7% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4? |
Yes |
400 |
0.999 |
$399.40 |
$184.34 |
+85.7% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31? |
Yes |
830 |
0.475 |
$394.16 |
$-77.06 |
-16.4% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31? |
No |
400 |
0.969 |
$387.60 |
$51.60 |
+15.4% |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 15? |
No |
404 |
0.930 |
$376.06 |
$102.16 |
+37.3% |
| Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)? |
Yes |
500 |
0.625 |
$312.50 |
$115.95 |
+59.0% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
400 |
0.725 |
$290.00 |
$38.00 |
+15.1% |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31? |
No |
300 |
0.955 |
$286.52 |
$52.78 |
+22.6% |
| Iran full airspace closure by August 15? |
No |
276 |
0.945 |
$261.16 |
$145.09 |
+125.0% |
| Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)? |
No |
500 |
0.520 |
$260.00 |
$79.88 |
+44.3% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? |
No |
426 |
0.600 |
$255.58 |
$81.49 |
+46.8% |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? |
No |
293 |
0.855 |
$250.55 |
$27.55 |
+12.4% |
| Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? |
Yes |
502 |
0.485 |
$243.51 |
$-52.57 |
-17.8% |
| Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? |
No |
500 |
0.420 |
$210.00 |
$-60.62 |
-22.4% |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? |
Yes |
1,372 |
0.145 |
$198.90 |
$-29.77 |
-13.0% |
| Kash Patel out by December 31? |
Yes |
815 |
0.210 |
$171.18 |
$-332.66 |
-66.0% |
| Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? |
No |
306 |
0.515 |
$157.62 |
$-47.18 |
-23.0% |