| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
No |
1,910 |
0.845 |
$1,614.01 |
$329.37 |
+25.6% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4? |
Yes |
1,344 |
0.998 |
$1,341.04 |
$410.11 |
+44.1% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? |
Yes |
925 |
0.795 |
$735.69 |
$318.79 |
+76.5% |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? |
No |
665 |
0.855 |
$568.76 |
$223.96 |
+65.0% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? |
Yes |
434 |
0.805 |
$349.12 |
$262.00 |
+300.7% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? |
No |
525 |
0.635 |
$333.58 |
$-0.84 |
-0.3% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? |
No |
278 |
0.963 |
$267.36 |
$5.89 |
+2.3% |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? |
Yes |
135 |
0.823 |
$110.97 |
$45.99 |
+70.8% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? |
Yes |
164 |
0.675 |
$110.79 |
$11.17 |
+11.2% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? |
No |
86 |
0.905 |
$78.24 |
$20.32 |
+35.1% |
| Mohammed Ghalibaf out as Speaker of Iran Parliament by September 30, 2026? |
No |
61 |
0.895 |
$54.90 |
$3.88 |
+7.6% |
| Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 |
Yes |
52 |
0.820 |
$42.58 |
$2.08 |
+5.1% |
| Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election? |
No |
40 |
0.987 |
$39.46 |
$0.18 |
+0.5% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? |
Yes |
36 |
0.950 |
$34.59 |
$15.19 |
+78.3% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? |
Yes |
35 |
0.895 |
$31.76 |
$13.37 |
+72.7% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
Yes |
31 |
0.625 |
$19.20 |
$1.08 |
+5.9% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? |
Yes |
380 |
0.028 |
$10.45 |
$0.57 |
+5.8% |
| Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? |
Yes |
4 |
0.996 |
$3.94 |
$0.05 |
+1.2% |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? |
No |
1 |
0.945 |
$1.03 |
$0.10 |
+11.2% |