PnL (30d)

−$192

Economy · last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

+$272

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-11.4%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

44%

4W / 5L · 6 open

Win Return (30d)

67%

10W / 5L

Trades (30d)

15

across 6 markets · ~2 per market

EV / position

−$63.91

avg win $62 · loss $316

Profit Factor

0.39

$124 won / $316 lost

Reward / Risk

0.20

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

$0

no drawdown

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	44.9% 198W/243L	214	$27,588
🏛 Politics	100.0% 4W/0L	4	$2,312
₿ Crypto	—	3	$671
💵 Economy	—	3	$671

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

11 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in August?	Yes	710	0.555	$394.05	$111.97	+39.7%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?	No	427	0.790	$337.34	$128.10	+61.2%
Will at least 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026?	Yes	185	0.680	$126.01	$26.01	+26.0%
Will at least 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026?	Yes	309	0.390	$120.45	$20.45	+20.5%
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by August 31?	Yes	561	0.133	$74.68	$-1.82	-2.4%
Will Iran target a Arab country on August 4, 2026?	Yes	1,563	0.035	$54.69	$-234.31	-81.1%
Will at least 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026?	Yes	199	0.250	$49.83	$-0.17	-0.3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in August?	No	92	0.345	$31.83	$-3.24	-9.2%
Will Iran target a Arab country on August 2, 2026?	Yes	1,600	0.009	$14.40	$4.40	+44.0%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	No	58	0.011	$0.64	$-5.36	-89.4%
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 3-August 9?	Yes	4	0.060	$0.24	$-0.76	-76.0%