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Trader leaderboard/ArthurGreen

ArthurGreen

0xd5db05423b6718497684ae1bbe1557746d2c3c45
Scoped to Politics — every figure below is this category, last 30 days. ← All markets
PnL (30d)
+$621
Politics · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
−$21
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
+40.5%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
90%
26W / 3L · 34 open
Win Return (30d)
67%
42W / 21L
Trades (30d)
63
across 10 markets · ~6 per market
EV / position
+$155.15
avg win $330 · loss $20
Profit Factor
16.47
$661 won / $40 lost
Reward / Risk
16.47
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$29
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $13,039 · all-time $1,858,625

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 26.1% 29W/82L 37 $10,261
🏛 Politics 93.8% 15W/1L 5 $1,711
₿ Crypto 1 $233

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

27 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No 1,000 0.740 $739.99 $12.00 +1.6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 2,138 0.245 $523.86 $-75.02 -12.5%
Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? No 601 0.725 $435.98 $-3.02 -0.7%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1,024 0.278 $284.16 $34.69 +13.9%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 230 0.540 $124.31 $-29.32 -19.1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes 249 0.355 $88.23 $-26.53 -23.1%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman by September 30, 2026? Yes 1,540 0.054 $83.15 $62.03 +293.7%
US charges Hormuz fees by August 31, 2026? Yes 2,200 0.019 $41.80 $2.60 +6.6%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026? Yes 168 0.205 $34.52 $-24.28 -41.3%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? Yes 42 0.815 $34.23 $24.07 +237.1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026? Yes 209 0.125 $26.09 $-7.13 -21.5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 200 0.115 $23.00 $-17.00 -42.5%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Italy by September 30, 2026? Yes 3,376 0.006 $21.95 $-0.16 -0.7%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1,330 0.015 $19.29 $-12.99 -40.3%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? Yes 27 0.710 $18.86 $9.57 +102.9%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? Yes 94 0.170 $16.02 $-11.30 -41.4%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Saudi Arabia by September 30, 2026? Yes 3,000 0.004 $10.50 $-1.50 -12.5%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey by September 30, 2026? Yes 1,096 0.009 $9.32 $4.93 +112.5%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No 10 0.905 $8.92 $1.99 +28.7%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026? No 11 0.765 $8.09 $4.54 +127.9%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No 5 0.905 $4.53 $0.07 +1.7%
Will Iran target a Arab country on August 5, 2026? Yes 211 0.013 $2.85 $-7.70 -73.0%
Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? Yes 6 0.335 $1.97 $0.32 +19.6%
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? Yes 2 0.710 $1.15 $0.15 +14.5%
Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31? Yes 6 0.175 $1.03 $0.03 +2.9%