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Trader

0xd4662574a18edea35370b78d352cb83126d817dd
Scoped to Politics — every figure below is this category, last 30 days. ← All markets
PnL (30d)
−$6
Politics · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
+$2
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
-14.6%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
49%
20W / 21L · 4 open
Win Return (30d)
50%
22W / 22L · 1 open
Trades (30d)
45
across 13 markets · ~3 per market
EV / position
−$0.72
avg win $2 · loss $2
Profit Factor
0.41
$5 won / $11 lost
Reward / Risk
1.45
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$3
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $383 · all-time $30,366

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 66.4% 396W/200L 196 $812
💵 Economy 17.6% 3W/14L 19 $24
₿ Crypto 17.6% 3W/14L 14 $17
🏛 Politics 0.0% 0W/6L 3 $15
⚽ Sports 2 $16
🎬 Culture 0.0% 0W/6L 2 $15
🤖 Tech 1 $2
🔬 Science 1 $2

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

24 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Will Glean's valuation hit (LOW) $6B by December 31? No 8 0.445 $3.62 $-0.12 -3.3%
Will Japan Q2 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.0% and 0.8%? No 3 0.680 $2.35 $0.52 +28.3%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by August 31? No 3 0.710 $2.15 $0.15 +7.6%
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? No 5 0.375 $2.03 $0.03 +1.4%
Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement? No 11 0.192 $2.02 $0.02 +1.1%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026? Yes 10 0.200 $1.99 $-0.01 -0.7%
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15? No 5 0.400 $1.95 $-0.05 -2.4%
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 Yes 2 0.820 $1.91 $0.91 +90.7%
Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding? No 5 0.395 $1.85 $-0.15 -7.4%
Another NATO Article 4 invocation by October 31, 2026? Yes 8 0.220 $1.83 $-0.17 -8.3%
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31? Yes 3 0.505 $1.47 $-0.54 -26.8%
Will Glean's valuation hit (LOW) $6.5B by August 31? No 2 0.680 $1.45 $-0.55 -27.7%
Will ByteDance's valuation hit (HIGH) $650B by December 31? Yes 5 0.280 $1.44 $-0.56 -28.2%
Will Perplexity's valuation hit (LOW) $16.5B by August 31? No 2 0.530 $1.31 $-0.69 -34.6%
Will the Republican Party win the OH-13 House seat? No 1 0.920 $1.26 $0.26 +26.0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in August? No 1 0.990 $1.03 $0.04 +3.5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 Week of August 3 2026? No 1 0.992 $1.03 $0.03 +3.3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in August? Yes 2 0.660 $1.03 $0.03 +3.1%
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? No 1 0.968 $1.01 $0.01 +1.3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 Week of August 3 2026? No 1 0.997 $1.01 $0.01 +0.7%
Will Magomed Ankalaev fight Paulo Costa next? Yes 5 0.180 $0.97 $-1.03 -51.4%
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026? No 2 0.435 $0.76 $-0.24 -23.7%
Will Rodri join Real Madrid? No 2 0.225 $0.54 $0.04 +7.4%
Copper cable hit with Sec. 232 tariffs by December 31, 2026? Yes 6 0.050 $0.31 $-0.93 -75.0%