| Ukraine election called by August 31, 2026? |
No |
91 |
0.979 |
$88.72 |
$3.82 |
+4.5% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? |
No |
85 |
0.845 |
$71.91 |
$0.17 |
+0.2% |
| Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? |
No |
83 |
0.710 |
$58.90 |
$8.90 |
+17.8% |
| Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? |
No |
62 |
0.885 |
$54.63 |
$4.63 |
+9.3% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31? |
No |
55 |
0.966 |
$53.08 |
$3.08 |
+6.2% |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31? |
No |
84 |
0.440 |
$36.99 |
$6.86 |
+22.8% |
| Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? |
No |
42 |
0.731 |
$31.03 |
$-4.07 |
-11.6% |
| Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? |
No |
28 |
0.977 |
$27.18 |
$1.81 |
+7.1% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? |
No |
47 |
0.561 |
$26.17 |
$-8.34 |
-24.2% |
| Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? |
Yes |
1,073 |
0.023 |
$24.67 |
$-0.48 |
-1.9% |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 15? |
No |
28 |
0.845 |
$23.98 |
$0.02 |
+0.1% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026? |
No |
21 |
0.964 |
$20.50 |
$0.50 |
+2.5% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
17 |
0.725 |
$12.08 |
$2.08 |
+20.8% |
| Israel agrees to Board of Peace Gaza plan by August 7? |
No |
11 |
0.945 |
$10.75 |
$0.75 |
+7.5% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? |
Yes |
11 |
0.950 |
$10.61 |
$0.61 |
+6.1% |
| NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026? |
No |
11 |
0.950 |
$10.11 |
$0.11 |
+1.1% |
| Foreign intervention in Gaza by August 31? |
No |
11 |
0.930 |
$10.01 |
$0.01 |
+0.1% |
| Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by August 31, 2026? |
No |
10 |
0.967 |
$9.88 |
$-0.12 |
-1.2% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? |
Yes |
9 |
0.895 |
$7.85 |
$2.85 |
+57.0% |
| Will a European country take military action on Iran by August 31? |
No |
8 |
0.982 |
$7.41 |
$0.16 |
+2.2% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 7, 2026? |
No |
6 |
0.988 |
$5.46 |
$0.46 |
+9.2% |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 31? |
No |
6 |
0.905 |
$5.39 |
$0.39 |
+7.7% |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? |
No |
27 |
0.177 |
$4.82 |
$-0.18 |
-3.5% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? |
No |
19 |
0.195 |
$3.72 |
$-14.02 |
-79.0% |