| Ukraine election called by August 31, 2026? |
No |
91 |
0.979 |
$88.72 |
$3.82 |
+4.5% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? |
No |
85 |
0.840 |
$71.48 |
$-0.26 |
-0.4% |
| Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? |
No |
83 |
0.710 |
$58.90 |
$8.90 |
+17.8% |
| Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? |
No |
62 |
0.885 |
$54.63 |
$4.63 |
+9.3% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31? |
No |
55 |
0.966 |
$53.08 |
$3.08 |
+6.2% |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31? |
No |
84 |
0.440 |
$36.99 |
$6.86 |
+22.8% |
| Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? |
No |
42 |
0.725 |
$30.76 |
$-4.34 |
-12.4% |
| Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? |
No |
28 |
0.977 |
$27.18 |
$1.81 |
+7.1% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? |
No |
47 |
0.531 |
$24.77 |
$-9.74 |
-28.2% |
| Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? |
Yes |
1,073 |
0.023 |
$24.67 |
$-0.48 |
-1.9% |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 15? |
No |
28 |
0.840 |
$23.84 |
$-0.12 |
-0.5% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026? |
No |
21 |
0.964 |
$20.50 |
$0.50 |
+2.5% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
17 |
0.725 |
$12.08 |
$2.08 |
+20.8% |
| Israel agrees to Board of Peace Gaza plan by August 7? |
No |
11 |
0.972 |
$11.05 |
$1.05 |
+10.5% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9? |
Yes |
11 |
0.945 |
$10.56 |
$0.56 |
+5.6% |
| NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026? |
No |
11 |
0.950 |
$10.12 |
$0.12 |
+1.2% |
| Foreign intervention in Gaza by August 31? |
No |
11 |
0.934 |
$10.04 |
$0.04 |
+0.4% |
| Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by August 31, 2026? |
No |
10 |
0.967 |
$9.88 |
$-0.12 |
-1.2% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? |
Yes |
9 |
0.895 |
$7.85 |
$2.85 |
+57.0% |
| Will a European country take military action on Iran by August 31? |
No |
8 |
0.983 |
$7.41 |
$0.16 |
+2.2% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 7, 2026? |
No |
6 |
0.988 |
$5.46 |
$0.46 |
+9.2% |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 31? |
No |
6 |
0.900 |
$5.36 |
$0.36 |
+7.1% |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? |
No |
27 |
0.177 |
$4.82 |
$-0.18 |
-3.5% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? |
No |
19 |
0.215 |
$4.10 |
$-13.64 |
-76.9% |