PnL (30d)

−$2

Politics · last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

−$35

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-0.4%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

50%

21W / 21L · 1,464 open

Win Return (30d)

8%

122W / 1,384L

Trades (30d)

1,506

across 29 markets · ~52 per market

EV / position

−$0.28

avg win $4 · loss $29

Profit Factor

0.93

$27 won / $29 lost

Reward / Risk

0.16

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

$0

no drawdown

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	24.5% 36W/111L	71	$2,354
💵 Economy	80.0% 4W/1L	14	$295
🏛 Politics	100.0% 3W/0L	11	$149
🤖 Tech	100.0% 1W/0L	1	$8

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

61 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?	Yes	278	0.470	$130.69	$24.60	+23.2%
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	Yes	218	0.580	$126.33	$-11.54	-8.4%
Will Amal Movement win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?	No	118	0.971	$114.39	$0.39	+0.3%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Yes	96	0.886	$85.47	$21.89	+34.4%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	70	0.985	$68.88	$1.66	+2.5%
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	Yes	105	0.625	$65.46	$8.56	+15.1%
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?	No	107	0.490	$52.34	$6.72	+14.7%
Will the Fed Pause–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	Yes	1,402	0.021	$28.75	$16.42	+133.1%
Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	18,251	0.002	$27.38	$-38.80	-58.6%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	10,625	0.003	$26.56	$-4.24	-13.8%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	25	0.991	$24.99	$0.35	+1.4%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	15,994	0.002	$23.99	$-37.47	-61.0%
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?	No	43	0.530	$22.81	$-1.38	-5.7%
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	15,054	0.002	$22.58	$-35.39	-61.0%
Will ReLebanon win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election?	No	22	1.000	$22.44	$0.16	+0.7%
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	Yes	39	0.485	$19.03	$-0.74	-3.8%
Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by December 31?	No	22	0.860	$18.94	$2.22	+13.3%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	20	0.955	$18.64	$2.64	+16.5%
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	Yes	59	0.295	$17.48	$1.48	+9.3%
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	No	44	0.375	$16.69	$0.23	+1.4%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	37	0.455	$16.67	$-2.01	-10.7%
Fed rate cut by October 2026 meeting?	No	17	0.945	$16.50	$3.02	+22.4%
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?	Yes	432	0.033	$14.04	$7.16	+103.9%
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	13	0.998	$13.21	$0.03	+0.2%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	26	0.485	$12.52	$4.52	+56.5%