PnL (30d)

−$100

last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

+$5

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-10.6%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

3%

1W / 30L · 95 open

Win Return (30d)

48%

60W / 65L · 1 open

Trades (30d)

126

across 22 markets · ~6 per market

EV / position

−$20.02

avg win $10 · loss $28

Profit Factor

0.09

$10 won / $111 lost

Reward / Risk

0.38

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

$0

no drawdown

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	3.2% 1W/30L	22	$1,293
🏛 Politics	—	3	$62

Open positions

24 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	573	0.845	$484.35	$38.97	+8.7%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?	No	447	0.915	$409.01	$23.79	+6.2%
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?	No	394	0.915	$360.43	$27.85	+8.4%
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	579	0.455	$263.27	$-105.89	-28.7%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	311	0.805	$250.50	$25.85	+11.5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?	No	193	0.885	$171.24	$13.16	+8.3%
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026?	No	132	0.969	$127.85	$6.53	+5.4%
Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027?	No	126	0.920	$115.78	$11.15	+10.7%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	No	121	0.775	$93.72	$2.98	+3.3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	109	0.855	$92.82	$15.33	+19.8%
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?	No	315	0.285	$89.79	$-34.28	-27.6%
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay	No	88	0.905	$79.43	$6.22	+8.5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	108	0.655	$70.91	$14.97	+26.8%
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?	No	130	0.375	$48.64	$-8.52	-14.9%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by December 31?	No	48	0.921	$43.83	$-1.15	-2.6%
Trump meets with Putin by December 31?	No	47	0.740	$35.15	$2.27	+6.9%
Will Russia capture Vodianske by December 31?	No	75	0.405	$30.41	$-6.38	-17.3%
Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026?	No	21	0.815	$17.12	$0.56	+3.4%
Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026?	No	12	0.940	$11.10	$0.54	+5.1%
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?	No	17	0.635	$10.79	$-0.26	-2.3%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?	Yes	8	0.765	$6.07	$2.42	+66.3%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31?	No	6	0.625	$3.55	$0.82	+30.2%
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026?	No	4	0.815	$3.43	$0.15	+4.5%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31, 2026?	No	4	0.710	$2.55	$0.11	+4.4%