PnL (30d)

−$38

last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

+$251

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-3.4%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

32%

190W / 402L · 1,174 open

Win Return (30d)

59%

1,034W / 732L

Trades (30d)

1,766

across 127 markets · ~14 per market

EV / position

−$0.69

avg win $8 · loss $5

Profit Factor

0.80

$148 won / $186 lost

Reward / Risk

1.64

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$0

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	32.1% 190W/402L	127	$2,199
🏛 Politics	100.0% 7W/0L	29	$336
🤖 Tech	66.7% 8W/4L	7	$19
🔬 Science	—	3	$99
🎬 Culture	—	2	$98
💵 Economy	—	1	$3

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

86 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	800	0.024	$18.80	$9.40	+100.0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	50	0.345	$17.24	$-4.25	-19.8%
Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	4,924	0.004	$17.23	$7.39	+75.0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	4,300	0.004	$17.20	$1.32	+8.3%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	200	0.075	$15.00	$-4.00	-21.1%
Will Jimmie Åkesson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Yes	700	0.021	$14.35	$1.85	+14.8%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	4,855	0.003	$12.14	$-2.43	-16.7%
Will Elon Musk be 2nd richest person on December 31?	Yes	182	0.059	$10.66	$8.60	+417.0%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Yes	5,301	0.002	$10.60	$-1.71	-13.9%
Will Progresīvie (PRO) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election?	Yes	210	0.049	$10.29	$-4.13	-28.6%
Will Latvija Pirmajā Vietā (LPV) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election?	Yes	50	0.205	$10.25	$2.75	+36.7%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	1,600	0.006	$9.60	$0.80	+9.1%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?	Yes	200	0.045	$9.00	$1.00	+12.5%
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?	Yes	95	0.080	$7.64	$0.95	+14.3%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	2,162	0.004	$7.57	$-0.41	-5.1%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	100	0.072	$7.25	$-0.45	-5.8%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	50	0.130	$6.50	$2.22	+51.9%
Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by September 30, 2026?	Yes	100	0.065	$6.50	$1.50	+30.0%
SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2028?	Yes	7	0.810	$5.89	$4.29	+268.2%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	30	0.177	$5.32	$-0.74	-12.1%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	2,017	0.003	$5.04	$-1.01	-16.7%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	3,334	0.002	$5.00	$1.67	+50.0%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Yes	150	0.030	$4.58	$-0.38	-7.6%
Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	Yes	100	0.045	$4.50	$0.00	+0.0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	2,800	0.002	$4.20	$-9.50	-69.3%