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Trader leaderboard/fresh

fresh

0xd064251efc30a38c3323e42113656144d4b8c4d1
Scoped to Politics — every figure below is this category, last 30 days. ← All markets
PnL (30d)
−$8
Politics · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
+$19
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
-0.8%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
25%
3W / 9L · 3 open
Win Return (30d)
40%
6W / 9L
Trades (30d)
15
across 6 markets · ~2 per market
EV / position
−$1.51
avg win $4 · loss $5
Profit Factor
0.53
$8 won / $16 lost
Reward / Risk
0.79
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
$0
no drawdown
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $14,233 · all-time $477,171

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 81.8% 377W/84L 321 $28,913
💵 Economy 92.7% 38W/3L 37 $1,558
🤖 Tech 100.0% 4W/0L 5 $254
🏛 Politics 100.0% 2W/0L 1 $208

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

79 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 1,860 0.620 $1,153.20 $-225.50 -16.4%
Will 200-219 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between July 27-August 2? Yes 295 0.962 $283.66 $5.57 +2.0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? Yes 800 0.305 $243.99 $-99.99 -29.1%
Will Eli Lilly (LLY) Q2 Zepbound sales be above $4.5B? Yes 185 1.000 $184.50 $1.95 +1.1%
CVS Health (CVS) Q2 medical benefit ratio (MBR) <87.5%? Yes 302 0.535 $161.83 $-86.11 -34.7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? Yes 800 0.165 $132.00 $-105.30 -44.4%
CVS Health (CVS) Q2 medical benefit ratio (MBR) 92%+? No 100 1.000 $100.04 $0.05 +0.0%
CVS Health (CVS) Q2 medical benefit ratio (MBR) 90.5%-92%? No 100 1.000 $100.04 $0.05 +0.0%
CVS Health (CVS) Q2 medical benefit ratio (MBR) 87.5%-89%? No 95 0.996 $94.57 $0.82 +0.9%
Will Eli Lilly (LLY) Q2 Zepbound sales be above $6B? No 90 0.966 $86.89 $-3.02 -3.4%
Iran invades Kuwait by August 31? No 76 0.983 $74.71 $2.58 +3.6%
CVS Health (CVS) Q2 medical benefit ratio (MBR) 89%-90.5%? No 101 0.625 $62.92 $-37.07 -37.1%
Will Eli Lilly (LLY) Q2 Mounjaro sales be above $10.5B? No 100 0.551 $55.22 $-44.77 -44.8%
Will Eli Lilly (LLY) Q2 Mounjaro sales be above $7.5B? Yes 100 0.550 $55.17 $-44.82 -44.8%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 60 0.675 $40.49 $0.30 +0.7%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026? No 50 0.770 $38.50 $2.50 +6.9%
Will Eli Lilly (LLY) Q2 Zepbound sales be above $5.5B? No 40 0.960 $38.40 $-0.95 -2.4%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026? No 30 0.986 $29.56 $2.36 +8.7%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? No 30 0.976 $29.28 $4.68 +19.0%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? No 30 0.961 $28.82 $5.82 +25.3%
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? Yes 30 0.855 $25.65 $8.65 +50.9%
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? Yes 30 0.825 $24.75 $14.85 +150.0%
Will Eli Lilly (LLY) Q2 Mounjaro sales be above $9.75B? Yes 22 0.966 $21.24 $-0.18 -0.8%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? No 20 0.989 $19.78 $0.22 +1.1%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Yes 50 0.395 $19.75 $-4.05 -17.0%