PnL (30d)

+$43

Weather · last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

−$1

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

+31.1%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

70%

239W / 102L · 42 open

Win Return (30d)

70%

239W / 103L · 41 open

Trades (30d)

383

across 94 markets · ~4 per market

EV / position

+$0.52

avg win $1 · loss $0

Profit Factor

3.81

$58 won / $15 lost

Reward / Risk

3.46

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$4

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	66.9% 1,024W/506L	374	$1,518
🌤 Weather	51.9% 27W/25L	21	$21

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

11 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on August 5?	Yes	10	0.520	$5.20	$-0.20	-3.7%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on August 6?	Yes	10	0.510	$5.10	$0.00	+0.0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on August 6?	Yes	10	0.405	$4.05	$0.55	+15.7%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on August 5?	Yes	60	0.060	$3.60	$-3.20	-47.1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on August 5?	Yes	10	0.300	$3.00	$0.40	+15.4%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on August 5?	Yes	10	0.150	$1.57	$0.46	+41.8%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on August 5?	Yes	5	0.230	$1.15	$0.45	+64.3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on August 6?	Yes	59	0.013	$0.77	$-1.04	-57.5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on August 5?	Yes	7	0.043	$0.28	$0.10	+57.7%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on August 5?	Yes	10	0.001	$0.01	$-0.20	-97.5%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on August 5?	Yes	5	0.001	$0.00	$-0.30	-99.2%