| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? |
No |
16,587 |
0.835 |
$13,850.53 |
$3,215.71 |
+30.2% |
| Kash Patel out by December 31? |
No |
13,075 |
0.790 |
$10,329.17 |
$6,336.03 |
+158.7% |
| Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? |
No |
2,047 |
0.785 |
$1,607.03 |
$762.18 |
+90.2% |
| Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027? |
No |
2,124 |
0.685 |
$1,455.06 |
$285.08 |
+24.4% |
| Will Karoline Leavitt leave the Trump administration before 2027? |
No |
1,699 |
0.795 |
$1,350.89 |
$350.89 |
+35.1% |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? |
Yes |
946 |
0.823 |
$778.37 |
$608.94 |
+359.4% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31? |
No |
1,441 |
0.520 |
$749.55 |
$206.55 |
+38.0% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31? |
No |
781 |
0.900 |
$703.12 |
$253.12 |
+56.2% |
| Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31? |
No |
551 |
0.620 |
$341.79 |
$11.79 |
+3.6% |
| No listed company closes Warner Bros acquisition by June 30, 2027 |
Yes |
1,115 |
0.260 |
$289.91 |
$27.77 |
+10.6% |
| Maduro guilty of all counts? |
No |
385 |
0.740 |
$284.62 |
$-15.38 |
-5.1% |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? |
No |
249 |
0.935 |
$232.95 |
$42.95 |
+22.6% |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? |
No |
241 |
0.945 |
$227.90 |
$27.90 |
+14.0% |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? |
No |
153 |
0.945 |
$144.99 |
$41.11 |
+39.6% |
| Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election? |
Yes |
1,256 |
0.115 |
$144.49 |
$-46.83 |
-24.5% |
| Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026? |
Yes |
405 |
0.325 |
$131.78 |
$-168.22 |
-56.1% |
| Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? |
Yes |
7,118 |
0.015 |
$106.77 |
$6.77 |
+6.8% |
| Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? |
No |
101 |
0.997 |
$101.09 |
$41.09 |
+68.5% |
| Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? |
No |
139 |
0.685 |
$95.14 |
$-4.86 |
-4.9% |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? |
No |
83 |
0.855 |
$71.17 |
$44.02 |
+162.1% |
| Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? |
No |
75 |
0.915 |
$68.92 |
$8.92 |
+14.9% |
| Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026? |
No |
77 |
0.885 |
$68.00 |
$8.00 |
+13.3% |
| Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election? |
Yes |
4,688 |
0.013 |
$63.28 |
$-236.72 |
-78.9% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? |
No |
93 |
0.645 |
$59.72 |
$9.72 |
+19.4% |
| Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration before 2027? |
No |
77 |
0.710 |
$54.54 |
$4.54 |
+9.1% |