| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? |
No |
16,587 |
0.830 |
$13,767.59 |
$3,132.77 |
+29.5% |
| Kash Patel out by December 31? |
No |
13,075 |
0.775 |
$10,133.05 |
$6,139.91 |
+153.8% |
| Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? |
No |
2,047 |
0.795 |
$1,627.50 |
$782.66 |
+92.6% |
| Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027? |
No |
2,124 |
0.690 |
$1,465.47 |
$295.48 |
+25.3% |
| Will Karoline Leavitt leave the Trump administration before 2027? |
No |
1,699 |
0.795 |
$1,350.89 |
$350.89 |
+35.1% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31? |
No |
1,441 |
0.545 |
$785.58 |
$242.59 |
+44.7% |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? |
Yes |
946 |
0.823 |
$778.84 |
$609.41 |
+359.7% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31? |
No |
781 |
0.935 |
$730.46 |
$280.47 |
+62.3% |
| Howard Lutnick out as Secretary of Commerce by December 31? |
No |
551 |
0.620 |
$341.79 |
$11.79 |
+3.6% |
| No listed company closes Warner Bros acquisition by June 30, 2027 |
Yes |
1,115 |
0.285 |
$317.67 |
$55.53 |
+21.2% |
| Maduro guilty of all counts? |
No |
385 |
0.720 |
$276.92 |
$-23.08 |
-7.7% |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? |
No |
249 |
0.935 |
$232.95 |
$42.95 |
+22.6% |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? |
No |
241 |
0.945 |
$227.90 |
$27.90 |
+14.0% |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? |
No |
153 |
0.945 |
$144.99 |
$41.11 |
+39.6% |
| Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election? |
Yes |
1,256 |
0.115 |
$144.49 |
$-46.83 |
-24.5% |
| Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026? |
Yes |
405 |
0.330 |
$133.81 |
$-166.19 |
-55.4% |
| Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? |
Yes |
7,118 |
0.015 |
$106.77 |
$6.77 |
+6.8% |
| Will 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? |
No |
101 |
0.997 |
$101.14 |
$41.14 |
+68.6% |
| Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? |
No |
139 |
0.685 |
$95.14 |
$-4.86 |
-4.9% |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? |
No |
83 |
0.855 |
$71.17 |
$44.02 |
+162.1% |
| Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? |
No |
75 |
0.915 |
$68.92 |
$8.92 |
+14.9% |
| Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026? |
No |
77 |
0.885 |
$68.00 |
$8.00 |
+13.3% |
| Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election? |
Yes |
4,688 |
0.013 |
$63.28 |
$-236.72 |
-78.9% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? |
No |
93 |
0.655 |
$60.65 |
$10.65 |
+21.3% |
| Will Dan Scavino leave the Trump administration before 2027? |
No |
77 |
0.707 |
$54.39 |
$11.70 |
+27.4% |