majorkarr
0xcf181837087772b67f9021f8a512c2bbe02f8a0d
Scoped to Politics — every figure below is this category, last 30 days.
← All markets
PnL (30d)
−$254
Politics · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
+$221
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
-3.6%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
75%
24W / 8L · 6 open
Win Return (30d)
79%
30W / 8L
Trades (30d)
38
across 5 markets · ~8 per market
EV / position
−$63.60
avg win $139 · loss $266
Profit Factor
0.52
$278 won / $533 lost
Reward / Risk
0.52
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$374
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $7,992 · all-time $319,257
By category last 30d
click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Equity curve
realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure
Open positions
8 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
| Market |
Outcome |
Size |
Cur. price |
Current value |
Cash PnL |
% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
No |
5,867 |
0.845 |
$4,958.02 |
$342.54 |
+7.4% |
| Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? |
No |
1,243 |
0.786 |
$977.71 |
$183.36 |
+23.1% |
| Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
No |
189 |
0.924 |
$174.68 |
$17.67 |
+11.3% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
Yes |
786 |
0.155 |
$121.87 |
$-74.69 |
-38.0% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? |
Yes |
122 |
0.795 |
$96.82 |
$35.93 |
+59.0% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? |
No |
125 |
0.205 |
$25.59 |
$-30.58 |
-54.4% |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
Yes |
30 |
0.645 |
$19.53 |
$6.81 |
+53.6% |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? |
No |
13 |
0.962 |
$12.11 |
$0.59 |
+5.1% |