| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? |
Yes |
3,000 |
1.000 |
$2,998.50 |
$36.77 |
+1.2% |
| Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? |
No |
2,999 |
1.000 |
$2,997.34 |
$99.05 |
+3.4% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3? |
Yes |
3,000 |
0.999 |
$2,997.00 |
$77.23 |
+2.6% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4? |
Yes |
3,000 |
0.999 |
$2,995.50 |
$10.52 |
+0.4% |
| Will GPT-6 be released by August 7, 2026? |
No |
2,995 |
0.995 |
$2,978.66 |
$16.52 |
+0.6% |
| Trump out as President by August 31? |
No |
3,000 |
0.993 |
$2,977.50 |
$1.50 |
+0.1% |
| Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15? |
Yes |
3,000 |
0.993 |
$2,977.50 |
$10.50 |
+0.4% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 7, 2026? |
No |
3,000 |
0.988 |
$2,962.50 |
$52.50 |
+1.8% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31? |
No |
3,043 |
0.973 |
$2,959.08 |
$196.34 |
+7.1% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026? |
No |
3,000 |
0.986 |
$2,956.64 |
$41.16 |
+1.4% |
| Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? |
No |
2,983 |
0.984 |
$2,935.27 |
$43.40 |
+1.5% |
| Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? |
No |
3,000 |
0.977 |
$2,929.50 |
$55.50 |
+1.9% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? |
No |
3,000 |
0.976 |
$2,926.50 |
$67.50 |
+2.4% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? |
No |
3,000 |
0.973 |
$2,917.50 |
$-20.51 |
-0.7% |
| Will Mark Sanford be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? |
No |
3,000 |
0.970 |
$2,908.50 |
$-28.50 |
-1.0% |
| Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? |
No |
3,000 |
0.969 |
$2,905.50 |
$85.73 |
+3.0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026? |
No |
3,000 |
0.964 |
$2,892.48 |
$183.76 |
+6.8% |
| Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? |
No |
3,000 |
0.956 |
$2,868.00 |
$-3.00 |
-0.1% |
| Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? |
No |
3,000 |
0.954 |
$2,862.00 |
$-7.64 |
-0.3% |
| Iran leadership change by September 30? |
No |
3,000 |
0.945 |
$2,835.00 |
$135.00 |
+5.0% |
| Trump out as President before 2027? |
No |
3,000 |
0.935 |
$2,805.00 |
$255.00 |
+10.0% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026? |
Yes |
2,981 |
0.935 |
$2,786.84 |
$4.88 |
+0.2% |
| Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? |
No |
3,000 |
0.925 |
$2,775.02 |
$165.57 |
+6.3% |
| Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? |
Yes |
3,000 |
0.925 |
$2,775.00 |
$-10.00 |
-0.4% |
| China x Japan military clash before 2027? |
No |
3,000 |
0.915 |
$2,745.03 |
$52.51 |
+1.9% |