| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? |
Yes |
3,000 |
1.000 |
$2,998.50 |
$36.77 |
+1.2% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3? |
Yes |
3,000 |
0.999 |
$2,995.50 |
$75.73 |
+2.6% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4? |
Yes |
3,000 |
0.999 |
$2,995.50 |
$10.52 |
+0.4% |
| Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? |
No |
2,999 |
0.996 |
$2,985.35 |
$87.05 |
+3.0% |
| Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15? |
Yes |
3,000 |
0.993 |
$2,979.00 |
$12.00 |
+0.4% |
| Trump out as President by August 31? |
No |
3,000 |
0.993 |
$2,977.50 |
$1.50 |
+0.1% |
| Will GPT-6 be released by August 7, 2026? |
No |
2,995 |
0.994 |
$2,975.66 |
$13.53 |
+0.5% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 7, 2026? |
No |
3,000 |
0.988 |
$2,964.00 |
$54.00 |
+1.9% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026? |
No |
3,000 |
0.985 |
$2,953.64 |
$38.16 |
+1.3% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31? |
No |
3,043 |
0.967 |
$2,942.35 |
$179.60 |
+6.5% |
| Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? |
No |
3,000 |
0.977 |
$2,929.50 |
$55.50 |
+1.9% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? |
No |
3,000 |
0.976 |
$2,926.50 |
$67.50 |
+2.4% |
| Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? |
No |
2,983 |
0.980 |
$2,921.85 |
$29.98 |
+1.0% |
| Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? |
No |
3,000 |
0.971 |
$2,911.50 |
$91.73 |
+3.3% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? |
No |
3,000 |
0.969 |
$2,907.00 |
$-31.01 |
-1.1% |
| Will Mark Sanford be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? |
No |
3,000 |
0.968 |
$2,904.00 |
$-33.00 |
-1.1% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026? |
No |
3,000 |
0.964 |
$2,890.98 |
$182.26 |
+6.7% |
| Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? |
No |
3,000 |
0.955 |
$2,865.00 |
$-6.00 |
-0.2% |
| Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? |
No |
3,000 |
0.954 |
$2,860.50 |
$-9.14 |
-0.3% |
| Iran leadership change by September 30? |
No |
3,000 |
0.945 |
$2,835.00 |
$135.00 |
+5.0% |
| Trump out as President before 2027? |
No |
3,000 |
0.935 |
$2,805.00 |
$255.00 |
+10.0% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026? |
Yes |
2,981 |
0.935 |
$2,786.84 |
$4.88 |
+0.2% |
| Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? |
No |
3,000 |
0.925 |
$2,775.02 |
$165.57 |
+6.3% |
| Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? |
Yes |
3,000 |
0.925 |
$2,775.00 |
$-10.00 |
-0.4% |
| Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
No |
2,960 |
0.927 |
$2,745.74 |
$37.54 |
+1.4% |