| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? |
No |
29,258 |
0.785 |
$22,967.44 |
$11,890.11 |
+107.3% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? |
No |
7,789 |
0.840 |
$6,542.58 |
$77.03 |
+1.2% |
| Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? |
Yes |
10,432 |
0.540 |
$5,638.34 |
$3,658.35 |
+184.8% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31? |
Yes |
9,256 |
0.475 |
$4,396.63 |
$-877.10 |
-16.6% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? |
Yes |
8,620 |
0.380 |
$3,275.76 |
$-815.08 |
-19.9% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? |
No |
2,282 |
0.695 |
$1,585.44 |
$-11.63 |
-0.7% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? |
No |
2,229 |
0.519 |
$1,158.03 |
$158.03 |
+15.8% |
| Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? |
Yes |
1,654 |
0.625 |
$1,033.56 |
$33.79 |
+3.4% |
| UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31? |
Yes |
2,852 |
0.355 |
$1,012.41 |
$12.41 |
+1.2% |
| Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? |
Yes |
10,288 |
0.033 |
$339.49 |
$-4,240.51 |
-92.6% |
| Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026? |
No |
175 |
0.765 |
$134.21 |
$34.21 |
+34.2% |
| US charges Hormuz fees by August 31, 2026? |
Yes |
4,902 |
0.018 |
$88.24 |
$-11.76 |
-11.8% |
| Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? |
Yes |
349 |
0.249 |
$86.95 |
$-13.05 |
-13.0% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? |
No |
79 |
0.815 |
$64.53 |
$14.53 |
+29.1% |
| Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027? |
No |
63 |
0.920 |
$57.66 |
$7.66 |
+15.3% |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? |
Yes |
405 |
0.095 |
$38.48 |
$-58.77 |
-60.4% |
| Will at least 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026? |
Yes |
67 |
0.390 |
$26.31 |
$-5.69 |
-17.8% |
| Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? |
No |
28 |
0.870 |
$24.47 |
$4.47 |
+22.3% |
| Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? |
Yes |
50 |
0.285 |
$14.24 |
$-3.25 |
-18.6% |
| Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
401 |
0.032 |
$12.63 |
$-37.37 |
-74.7% |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31? |
Yes |
136 |
0.090 |
$12.20 |
$-39.60 |
-76.4% |
| Will another country leave OPEC in 2026? |
No |
7 |
0.905 |
$6.46 |
$1.46 |
+29.3% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by December 31, 2026? |
No |
5 |
0.920 |
$4.60 |
$0.35 |
+8.2% |
| China x India military clash by December 31, 2026? |
No |
5 |
0.895 |
$4.47 |
$0.47 |
+11.9% |
| Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? |
Yes |
29 |
0.141 |
$4.08 |
$0.60 |
+17.1% |