PnL (30d)

+$164

Tech · last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

+$32

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

+4.9%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

60%

145W / 98L · 31 open

Win Return (30d)

62%

162W / 99L · 13 open

Trades (30d)

274

across 29 markets · ~9 per market

EV / position

+$7.46

avg win $28 · loss $28

Profit Factor

1.72

$392 won / $228 lost

Reward / Risk

0.98

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

$0

no drawdown

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	65.8% 361W/188L	96	$20,293
🤖 Tech	100.0% 38W/0L	5	$914
₿ Crypto	—	1	$12

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

19 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will Alibaba be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?	Yes	272	0.595	$161.72	$-3.08	-1.9%
Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?	No	214	0.595	$127.57	$3.39	+2.7%
Will Anthropic reset Claude usage limit by August 15?	No	220	0.580	$127.32	$45.23	+55.1%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?	No	300	0.375	$112.50	$-7.50	-6.2%
Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?	Yes	146	0.750	$109.66	$18.73	+20.6%
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	120	0.850	$102.00	$-1.20	-1.2%
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by August 31, 2026?	No	53	0.705	$37.30	$-10.01	-21.2%
Will Moonshot have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of August 2026?	No	39	0.958	$37.01	$3.00	+8.8%
Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31?	No	51	0.565	$28.90	$-8.44	-22.6%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on August 17, 2026?	Yes	300	0.090	$26.96	$3.57	+15.3%
Will Google be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?	Yes	80	0.295	$23.60	$-19.60	-45.4%
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by August 31, 2026?	No	24	0.910	$21.39	$-0.23	-1.1%
Will OpenAI have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of August 2026?	No	20	0.946	$18.92	$1.32	+7.5%
Will Grok 5 be released by December 31, 2026?	Yes	21	0.775	$16.27	$-0.53	-3.1%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on August 10, 2026?	Yes	200	0.076	$15.19	$2.24	+17.3%
Will Moonshot be the #2 AI lab at the end of August 2026?	Yes	419	0.023	$9.64	$7.13	+283.3%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of August 2026?	Yes	20	0.460	$9.20	$0.20	+2.2%
Will Alibaba be the #2 AI lab at the end of September 2026?	Yes	21	0.276	$5.71	$1.60	+38.8%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of September 2026?	Yes	15	0.265	$3.90	$-0.66	-14.5%