PnL (30d)

+$43

Culture · last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

$0

no open positions

ROI (30d)

+6.2%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

76%

16W / 5L

Win Return (30d)

76%

16W / 5L

Trades (30d)

21

across 10 markets · ~2 per market

EV / position

+$4.29

avg win $11 · loss $11

Profit Factor

2.26

$77 won / $34 lost

Reward / Risk

0.97

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

$0

no drawdown

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	65.8% 361W/188L	96	$20,293
🤖 Tech	100.0% 38W/0L	5	$914
₿ Crypto	—	1	$12

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

19 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will Alibaba be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?	Yes	272	0.595	$161.72	$-3.08	-1.9%
Will Anthropic reset Claude usage limit by August 15?	No	220	0.585	$128.41	$46.33	+56.4%
Will Apple release a touchscreen MacBook in 2026?	No	214	0.595	$127.57	$3.39	+2.7%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?	No	300	0.375	$112.50	$-7.50	-6.2%
Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?	Yes	146	0.750	$109.66	$18.73	+20.6%
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	120	0.855	$102.60	$-0.60	-0.6%
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by August 31, 2026?	No	53	0.705	$37.30	$-10.01	-21.2%
Will Moonshot have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of August 2026?	No	39	0.958	$37.01	$3.00	+8.8%
Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31?	No	51	0.565	$28.90	$-8.44	-22.6%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on August 17, 2026?	Yes	300	0.090	$26.96	$3.57	+15.3%
Will Google be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?	Yes	80	0.305	$24.40	$-18.80	-43.5%
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by August 31, 2026?	No	24	0.910	$21.39	$-0.23	-1.1%
Will OpenAI have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of August 2026?	No	20	0.946	$18.92	$1.32	+7.5%
Will Grok 5 be released by December 31, 2026?	Yes	21	0.775	$16.27	$-0.53	-3.1%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on August 10, 2026?	Yes	200	0.075	$14.99	$2.04	+15.7%
Will Moonshot be the #2 AI lab at the end of August 2026?	Yes	419	0.021	$8.97	$6.46	+256.7%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of August 2026?	Yes	20	0.355	$7.10	$-1.90	-21.1%
Will Alibaba be the #2 AI lab at the end of September 2026?	Yes	21	0.277	$5.73	$1.62	+39.4%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of September 2026?	Yes	15	0.210	$3.09	$-1.47	-32.2%