| Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
No |
20,000 |
0.924 |
$18,490.31 |
$315.53 |
+1.7% |
| Will GPT-6 be released by August 7, 2026? |
No |
16,239 |
0.995 |
$16,149.38 |
$204.06 |
+1.3% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? |
No |
15,602 |
0.985 |
$15,360.18 |
$207.83 |
+1.4% |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? |
No |
16,000 |
0.925 |
$14,800.02 |
$696.85 |
+4.9% |
| Will GPT-6 be released by August 14, 2026? |
No |
14,938 |
0.973 |
$14,526.75 |
$38.94 |
+0.3% |
| Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026? |
No |
13,826 |
0.933 |
$12,906.52 |
$149.68 |
+1.2% |
| New pandemic in 2026? |
No |
11,654 |
0.935 |
$10,896.23 |
$700.83 |
+6.9% |
| Fed rate hike in 2026? |
Yes |
16,001 |
0.625 |
$10,000.88 |
$-30.50 |
-0.3% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? |
No |
10,000 |
0.988 |
$9,875.00 |
$30.02 |
+0.3% |
| Trump out as President before 2027? |
No |
10,000 |
0.935 |
$9,350.40 |
$289.71 |
+3.2% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
Yes |
14,000 |
0.620 |
$8,680.00 |
$-1,091.16 |
-11.2% |
| Iran leadership change by August 31? |
No |
8,098 |
0.977 |
$7,911.80 |
$93.23 |
+1.2% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026? |
No |
7,126 |
0.986 |
$7,022.99 |
$-5.92 |
-0.1% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? |
No |
7,000 |
0.978 |
$6,842.51 |
$171.40 |
+2.6% |
| Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30? |
No |
7,060 |
0.954 |
$6,731.71 |
$225.38 |
+3.5% |
| Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? |
No |
12,297 |
0.535 |
$6,578.87 |
$515.45 |
+8.5% |
| Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by December 31, 2026? |
No |
6,775 |
0.915 |
$6,199.26 |
$103.92 |
+1.7% |
| Will GameStop acquire eBay? |
No |
7,000 |
0.865 |
$6,054.99 |
$16.76 |
+0.3% |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? |
No |
3,941 |
0.900 |
$3,547.28 |
$1,655.32 |
+87.5% |
| Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15? |
Yes |
3,498 |
0.993 |
$3,471.79 |
$57.72 |
+1.7% |
| Will OpenAI IPO by August 31 2026? |
No |
3,182 |
0.994 |
$3,162.89 |
$151.40 |
+5.0% |
| Ripple Labs IPO before 2027? |
No |
3,262 |
0.925 |
$3,017.56 |
$138.53 |
+4.8% |
| Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026? |
No |
3,037 |
0.975 |
$2,959.76 |
$40.01 |
+1.4% |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by September 30? |
No |
3,000 |
0.966 |
$2,896.50 |
$26.50 |
+0.9% |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? |
No |
3,000 |
0.935 |
$2,804.99 |
$135.00 |
+5.1% |