armadanoob
0xca41cc2951ff7d9417562b447d87755dfe273af9
Scoped to Politics — every figure below is this category, last 30 days.
← All markets
PnL (30d)
−$49
Politics · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
+$4
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
-72.0%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
0%
0W / 9L · 11 open
Win Return (30d)
40%
8W / 12L
Trades (30d)
20
across 10 markets · ~2 per market
EV / position
−$12.25
· loss $12
Profit Factor
0.00
$0 won / $49 lost
Reward / Risk
—
need wins & losses
Max Drawdown
−$22
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $150 · all-time $714,987
By category last 30d
click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Equity curve
realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure
Open positions
7 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
| Market |
Outcome |
Size |
Cur. price |
Current value |
Cash PnL |
% |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
100 |
0.075 |
$7.50 |
$-2.00 |
-21.1% |
| Will United Russia win between 280 and 294 seats in the next Russian State Duma election? |
Yes |
150 |
0.042 |
$6.23 |
$4.43 |
+245.8% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? |
Yes |
40 |
0.145 |
$5.80 |
$-4.20 |
-42.0% |
| Will Bad Bunny be the top artist for 2026? |
No |
3 |
0.255 |
$0.75 |
$-0.25 |
-25.0% |
| Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? |
No |
23 |
0.023 |
$0.53 |
$-0.47 |
-46.8% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? |
Yes |
10 |
0.040 |
$0.40 |
$-0.60 |
-60.5% |
| Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? |
Yes |
3 |
0.115 |
$0.34 |
$-0.66 |
-66.2% |