PnL (30d)

−$71

last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

+$103

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-4.7%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

45%

65W / 80L · 134 open

Win Return (30d)

57%

159W / 118L · 2 open

Trades (30d)

279

across 96 markets · ~3 per market

EV / position

−$1.26

avg win $5 · loss $6

Profit Factor

0.63

$121 won / $192 lost

Reward / Risk

0.84

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$23

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	44.8% 65W/80L	96	$3,015
🏛 Politics	0.0% 0W/2L	7	$213

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

21 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	200	0.835	$167.00	$16.00	+10.6%
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?	Yes	70	0.600	$42.00	$-1.85	-4.2%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?	Yes	50	0.765	$38.25	$2.25	+6.2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?	No	25	0.981	$24.51	$2.26	+10.2%
Will any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?	Yes	70	0.325	$22.75	$-1.70	-7.0%
Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?	Yes	95	0.210	$19.95	$-2.60	-11.5%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	20	0.840	$16.80	$3.80	+29.2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	Yes	100	0.165	$16.50	$0.50	+3.1%
Will no Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?	No	25	0.615	$15.38	$-0.88	-5.4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	20	0.650	$13.00	$2.00	+18.2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	20	0.615	$12.30	$-4.50	-26.8%
US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31?	Yes	18	0.650	$11.56	$3.02	+35.4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	Yes	20	0.565	$11.30	$0.50	+4.6%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	No	10	0.735	$7.35	$0.05	+0.7%
Will gas hit $3.90 (Low) by August 31?	Yes	20	0.330	$6.60	$-2.20	-25.0%
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	No	30	0.215	$6.45	$-5.25	-44.9%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	35	0.155	$5.42	$-4.97	-47.8%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	100	0.037	$3.75	$-5.75	-60.5%
Will 3 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?	Yes	119	0.030	$3.63	$-4.42	-54.9%
Spain accuses Morocco of facilitating Ceuta migrant wave by August 31?	Yes	80	0.036	$2.92	$-5.68	-66.0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by September 30, 2026?	Yes	50	0.038	$1.93	$-1.07	-35.8%