| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
No |
1,013 |
0.845 |
$856.20 |
$136.90 |
+19.0% |
| Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? |
No |
1,043 |
0.785 |
$818.94 |
$276.15 |
+50.9% |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? |
No |
500 |
0.905 |
$452.50 |
$67.50 |
+17.5% |
| Fed rate hike in 2026? |
Yes |
494 |
0.625 |
$308.45 |
$-6.34 |
-2.0% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
263 |
0.865 |
$227.31 |
$-3.24 |
-1.4% |
| Kash Patel out by December 31? |
Yes |
1,049 |
0.210 |
$220.24 |
$-240.74 |
-52.2% |
| Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 |
No |
994 |
0.180 |
$178.99 |
$-98.12 |
-35.4% |
| Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? |
No |
288 |
0.415 |
$119.35 |
$13.76 |
+13.0% |
| Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026? |
Yes |
500 |
0.125 |
$62.50 |
$-52.50 |
-45.7% |
| Will Google be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026? |
Yes |
180 |
0.305 |
$54.98 |
$-29.47 |
-34.9% |
| Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? |
Anthropic |
56 |
0.895 |
$50.12 |
$5.32 |
+11.9% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? |
No |
262 |
0.185 |
$48.47 |
$14.41 |
+42.3% |
| Will 0 people leave the Trump Cabinet by December 31, 2026? |
No |
38 |
0.644 |
$24.22 |
$-12.41 |
-33.9% |
| Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? |
Yes |
155 |
0.135 |
$20.87 |
$-14.23 |
-40.5% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? |
Yes |
20 |
0.840 |
$17.07 |
$0.81 |
+5.0% |
| Will the U.S. lift CAATSA sanctions on Turkey by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
20 |
0.660 |
$13.20 |
$0.00 |
+0.0% |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
1,623 |
0.005 |
$8.11 |
$-6.91 |
-46.0% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? |
No |
35 |
0.170 |
$5.96 |
$-1.05 |
-15.0% |
| Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day? |
Yes |
84 |
0.059 |
$4.93 |
$0.35 |
+7.7% |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
10 |
0.205 |
$2.05 |
$1.03 |
+101.5% |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? |
Yes |
5 |
0.184 |
$0.92 |
$0.88 |
+2269.2% |
| Will OpenAI be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026? |
Yes |
25 |
0.033 |
$0.82 |
$0.54 |
+189.4% |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? |
Yes |
5 |
0.151 |
$0.76 |
$0.72 |
+1845.1% |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? |
Yes |
5 |
0.147 |
$0.73 |
$0.70 |
+1787.6% |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? |
Yes |
5 |
0.086 |
$0.43 |
$0.39 |
+997.8% |