| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
No |
1,013 |
0.835 |
$846.07 |
$126.77 |
+17.6% |
| Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027? |
No |
1,043 |
0.785 |
$818.94 |
$276.15 |
+50.9% |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? |
No |
500 |
0.905 |
$452.50 |
$67.50 |
+17.5% |
| Fed rate hike in 2026? |
Yes |
494 |
0.625 |
$308.45 |
$-6.34 |
-2.0% |
| Kash Patel out by December 31? |
Yes |
1,049 |
0.210 |
$220.24 |
$-240.74 |
-52.2% |
| Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 |
No |
994 |
0.180 |
$178.99 |
$-98.12 |
-35.4% |
| Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting? |
No |
288 |
0.420 |
$120.78 |
$15.20 |
+14.4% |
| Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026? |
Yes |
500 |
0.125 |
$62.50 |
$-52.50 |
-45.7% |
| Will Google be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026? |
Yes |
180 |
0.305 |
$54.98 |
$-29.47 |
-34.9% |
| Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? |
Anthropic |
56 |
0.895 |
$50.12 |
$5.32 |
+11.9% |
| Will 0 people leave the Trump Cabinet by December 31, 2026? |
No |
38 |
0.643 |
$24.18 |
$-12.45 |
-34.0% |
| Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? |
Yes |
155 |
0.135 |
$20.87 |
$-14.23 |
-40.5% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? |
Yes |
20 |
0.835 |
$16.97 |
$0.71 |
+4.4% |
| Will the U.S. lift CAATSA sanctions on Turkey by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
20 |
0.670 |
$13.40 |
$0.20 |
+1.5% |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
1,623 |
0.005 |
$8.11 |
$-6.91 |
-46.0% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? |
No |
35 |
0.195 |
$6.83 |
$-0.18 |
-2.5% |
| Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day? |
Yes |
84 |
0.059 |
$4.93 |
$0.35 |
+7.7% |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
10 |
0.200 |
$2.00 |
$0.97 |
+95.6% |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? |
Yes |
5 |
0.184 |
$0.92 |
$0.88 |
+2269.2% |
| Will OpenAI be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026? |
Yes |
25 |
0.034 |
$0.85 |
$0.56 |
+198.2% |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? |
Yes |
5 |
0.146 |
$0.73 |
$0.69 |
+1780.9% |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? |
Yes |
5 |
0.143 |
$0.72 |
$0.68 |
+1742.4% |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? |
Yes |
5 |
0.086 |
$0.43 |
$0.39 |
+997.8% |
| Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? |
Yes |
5 |
0.052 |
$0.26 |
$0.22 |
+574.0% |
| Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? |
Yes |
5 |
0.049 |
$0.24 |
$0.21 |
+529.1% |