| Iran full airspace closure by December 31? |
No |
109 |
0.710 |
$77.73 |
$-1.63 |
-2.1% |
| Will XRP dip to $1.00 by December 31, 2026? |
No |
188 |
0.180 |
$33.78 |
$-19.17 |
-36.2% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? |
No |
16 |
0.845 |
$13.52 |
$0.55 |
+4.2% |
| Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on August 6? |
No |
20 |
0.485 |
$9.70 |
$-0.30 |
-3.0% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? |
Yes |
11 |
0.785 |
$8.62 |
$7.39 |
+600.6% |
| Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by at least 30%? |
Yes |
38 |
0.195 |
$7.45 |
$-10.89 |
-59.4% |
| Will Eric Barlow win the 2026 Wyoming Governor Republican primary election? |
No |
19 |
0.373 |
$7.24 |
$-2.06 |
-22.1% |
| Will Donald Trump visit North Korea in 2026? |
Yes |
70 |
0.100 |
$7.00 |
$-0.70 |
-9.1% |
| U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027? |
Yes |
37 |
0.185 |
$6.89 |
$1.67 |
+32.1% |
| Will Drew Campbell be evicted in Big Brother season 28 (Week 4)? |
Yes |
19 |
0.345 |
$6.54 |
$-3.89 |
-37.3% |
| Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 180m? |
No |
26 |
0.245 |
$6.26 |
$-0.89 |
-12.5% |
| Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on August 6? |
Yes |
13 |
0.410 |
$5.29 |
$-0.52 |
-8.9% |
| Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? |
No |
7 |
0.745 |
$5.12 |
$-0.45 |
-8.0% |
| Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? |
Yes |
11 |
0.445 |
$4.89 |
$-0.28 |
-5.3% |
| Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in July? |
No |
10 |
0.490 |
$4.78 |
$0.10 |
+2.2% |
| Will "Star" be in the headlines this week? |
Yes |
16 |
0.270 |
$4.44 |
$-2.47 |
-35.7% |
| Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026? |
No |
5 |
0.964 |
$4.43 |
$0.23 |
+5.5% |
| Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? |
No |
5 |
0.860 |
$4.23 |
$0.08 |
+1.9% |
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? |
No |
5 |
0.865 |
$4.21 |
$0.20 |
+5.1% |
| Will PPI YoY be 5.1% or less in July? |
No |
10 |
0.440 |
$4.18 |
$-0.14 |
-3.2% |
| Will Core CPI MoM be 0.1% in July? |
Yes |
21 |
0.199 |
$4.14 |
$-2.75 |
-39.9% |
| Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? |
No |
8 |
0.540 |
$4.14 |
$0.08 |
+1.9% |
| Will fewer than 180 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 3-August 9? |
No |
5 |
0.775 |
$4.09 |
$0.84 |
+25.7% |
| Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? |
No |
5 |
0.895 |
$4.06 |
$0.79 |
+24.3% |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? |
No |
5 |
0.830 |
$4.05 |
$0.00 |
+0.0% |