| Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 10–15%? |
No |
2,553 |
0.997 |
$2,544.06 |
$629.31 |
+32.9% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? |
No |
2,477 |
0.987 |
$2,444.03 |
$81.61 |
+3.5% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? |
No |
2,489 |
0.962 |
$2,394.08 |
$20.18 |
+0.9% |
| Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? |
No |
2,668 |
0.715 |
$1,907.66 |
$1,362.34 |
+249.8% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026? |
No |
1,926 |
0.985 |
$1,895.68 |
$13.37 |
+0.7% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4? |
Yes |
1,833 |
0.999 |
$1,830.48 |
$64.18 |
+3.6% |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026? |
No |
2,263 |
0.767 |
$1,735.79 |
$-57.94 |
-3.2% |
| Will 3 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? |
No |
1,735 |
0.970 |
$1,682.14 |
$95.92 |
+6.0% |
| Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15? |
No |
1,711 |
0.978 |
$1,672.14 |
$187.07 |
+12.6% |
| Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 5–10%? |
No |
1,636 |
1.000 |
$1,635.12 |
$232.20 |
+16.6% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? |
Yes |
1,812 |
0.895 |
$1,621.54 |
$552.59 |
+51.7% |
| Will Burgas host Eurovision 2027? |
No |
2,340 |
0.662 |
$1,550.06 |
$-563.39 |
-26.7% |
| Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? |
No |
1,600 |
0.964 |
$1,541.61 |
$72.80 |
+5.0% |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman by September 30, 2026? |
No |
1,590 |
0.940 |
$1,493.81 |
$48.89 |
+3.4% |
| 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? |
No |
1,568 |
0.934 |
$1,464.61 |
$113.69 |
+8.4% |
| Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? |
Yes |
2,162 |
0.670 |
$1,448.54 |
$874.62 |
+152.4% |
| Will Boyko Borissov win the next Bulgarian presidential election? |
No |
1,449 |
0.996 |
$1,442.48 |
$61.58 |
+4.5% |
| Will a European country take military action on Iran by August 31? |
No |
1,460 |
0.984 |
$1,436.64 |
$166.44 |
+13.1% |
| Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by December 31, 2026? |
No |
1,572 |
0.905 |
$1,422.91 |
$144.49 |
+11.3% |
| China x Japan military clash before 2027? |
No |
1,500 |
0.915 |
$1,372.50 |
$922.50 |
+205.0% |
| Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30? |
No |
1,398 |
0.954 |
$1,332.57 |
$2.10 |
+0.2% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in August? |
No |
1,388 |
0.939 |
$1,302.95 |
$-37.77 |
-2.8% |
| Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? |
No |
1,238 |
1.000 |
$1,237.33 |
$165.92 |
+15.5% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? |
No |
1,514 |
0.815 |
$1,233.74 |
$464.75 |
+60.4% |
| Andrew Tate released from custody by December 31, 2026? |
No |
1,594 |
0.770 |
$1,227.38 |
$76.46 |
+6.6% |