| Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 10–15%? |
No |
2,553 |
0.997 |
$2,544.06 |
$629.31 |
+32.9% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? |
No |
2,477 |
0.983 |
$2,434.12 |
$71.70 |
+3.0% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? |
No |
2,489 |
0.963 |
$2,396.57 |
$22.67 |
+1.0% |
| Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? |
No |
2,668 |
0.715 |
$1,907.66 |
$1,362.34 |
+249.8% |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026? |
No |
1,926 |
0.986 |
$1,897.61 |
$15.29 |
+0.8% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4? |
Yes |
1,833 |
0.999 |
$1,830.48 |
$64.18 |
+3.6% |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026? |
No |
2,263 |
0.800 |
$1,811.60 |
$17.87 |
+1.0% |
| Will Burgas host Eurovision 2027? |
No |
2,540 |
0.695 |
$1,763.84 |
$-530.28 |
-23.1% |
| Will 3 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? |
No |
1,735 |
0.970 |
$1,682.14 |
$95.92 |
+6.0% |
| Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15? |
No |
1,711 |
0.979 |
$1,673.85 |
$188.78 |
+12.7% |
| Will Abdul El-Sayed win the Michigan Senate Democratic primary by 5–10%? |
No |
1,636 |
1.000 |
$1,635.12 |
$232.20 |
+16.6% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? |
Yes |
1,812 |
0.870 |
$1,576.25 |
$507.30 |
+47.5% |
| Will Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2027 NBA Finals? |
No |
1,600 |
0.964 |
$1,541.61 |
$72.80 |
+5.0% |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman by September 30, 2026? |
No |
1,590 |
0.946 |
$1,504.15 |
$59.23 |
+4.1% |
| 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? |
No |
1,568 |
0.934 |
$1,465.40 |
$114.47 |
+8.5% |
| Will Boyko Borissov win the next Bulgarian presidential election? |
No |
1,449 |
0.996 |
$1,442.48 |
$61.58 |
+4.5% |
| Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? |
Yes |
2,162 |
0.665 |
$1,437.73 |
$863.81 |
+150.5% |
| Will a European country take military action on Iran by August 31? |
No |
1,460 |
0.982 |
$1,433.72 |
$163.52 |
+12.9% |
| Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by December 31, 2026? |
No |
1,572 |
0.905 |
$1,422.91 |
$144.49 |
+11.3% |
| China x Japan military clash before 2027? |
No |
1,500 |
0.915 |
$1,372.50 |
$922.50 |
+205.0% |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in August? |
No |
1,428 |
0.941 |
$1,342.65 |
$-36.71 |
-2.7% |
| Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30? |
No |
1,398 |
0.952 |
$1,329.78 |
$-0.70 |
-0.1% |
| Will GPT-6 be released by August 14, 2026? |
No |
1,365 |
0.972 |
$1,326.99 |
$28.15 |
+2.2% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? |
No |
1,514 |
0.815 |
$1,233.74 |
$464.75 |
+60.4% |
| Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? |
No |
1,238 |
0.993 |
$1,228.66 |
$157.25 |
+14.7% |