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Trader leaderboard/zthunderfury

zthunderfury

0xc682d7943aad07c246986a7aa2989cfcb17817bb
Scoped to Politics — every figure below is this category, last 30 days. ← All markets
PnL (30d)
−$416
Politics · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
+$5,486
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
-0.3%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
11%
9W / 71L · 833 open
Win Return (30d)
67%
610W / 300L · 3 open
Trades (30d)
913
across 38 markets · ~24 per market
EV / position
−$37.78
avg win $28 · loss $93
Profit Factor
0.25
$141 won / $557 lost
Reward / Risk
0.30
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
$0
no drawdown
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $100,076 · all-time $5,166,329

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 61.3% 193W/122L 101 $603,730
🏛 Politics 100.0% 1W/0L 5 $42,580
🌤 Weather 1 $10,637
🔬 Science 1 $10,637

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

34 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 30,123 0.865 $26,056.04 $511.66 +2.0%
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026? No 26,872 0.962 $25,850.87 $2,133.45 +9.0%
GTA 6 launch postponed again? No 26,686 0.895 $23,883.75 $2,474.81 +11.6%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 24,552 0.962 $23,607.10 $531.58 +2.3%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 27,743 0.790 $21,930.95 $8,059.38 +58.1%
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election? No 18,357 0.987 $18,109.39 $795.80 +4.6%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 17,685 0.845 $14,943.91 $1,421.19 +10.5%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 15,231 0.957 $14,568.55 $237.94 +1.7%
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? No 15,002 0.885 $13,276.82 $2,132.20 +19.1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 10,500 0.973 $10,216.50 $129.51 +1.3%
Iran Nuke before 2027? No 10,402 0.952 $9,897.39 $294.74 +3.1%
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? No 9,970 0.715 $7,128.20 $161.98 +2.3%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 27,743 0.209 $5,812.19 $-8,059.38 -58.1%
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15? No 4,999 0.977 $4,884.50 $84.99 +1.8%
Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election? Yes 4,293 0.987 $4,235.04 $276.04 +7.0%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 3,614 0.961 $3,472.67 $124.89 +3.7%
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 3,000 0.865 $2,595.04 $-45.00 -1.7%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No 1,894 0.935 $1,770.87 $66.29 +3.9%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? No 1,609 0.920 $1,479.94 $112.25 +8.2%
Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31? No 862 0.905 $779.87 $148.86 +23.6%
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? Yes 975 0.730 $711.40 $-27.59 -3.7%
Will ACA premium tax credits not be extended and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026? Yes 700 0.820 $574.10 $42.01 +7.9%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? No 995 0.573 $569.49 $-119.43 -17.3%
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? Yes 651 0.665 $433.06 $133.50 +44.6%
Will the Democrats win the Arizona governor race in 2026? Yes 530 0.785 $415.85 $3.44 +0.8%