PnL (30d)

−$1,292

last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

−$65

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-5.7%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

29%

1,410W / 3,394L · 267 open

Win Return (30d)

29%

1,421W / 3,465L · 185 open

Trades (30d)

5,071

across 1,454 markets · ~3 per market

EV / position

−$0.96

avg win $2 · loss $2

Profit Factor

0.38

$780 won / $2,072 lost

Reward / Risk

0.88

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$281

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	29.4% 1,410W/3,394L	1454	$42,269
🌤 Weather	46.7% 93W/106L	73	$1,746

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

30 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on August 5?	No	31	0.780	$24.48	$-1.57	-6.0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on August 5?	No	20	0.992	$19.49	$6.52	+50.3%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on August 6?	No	34	0.460	$15.64	$-7.14	-31.3%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on August 6?	No	24	0.625	$15.00	$-2.28	-13.2%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on August 6?	No	30	0.465	$14.16	$-4.72	-25.0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on August 6?	No	20	0.705	$14.10	$0.50	+3.7%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on August 6?	No	20	0.445	$8.90	$-2.10	-19.1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on August 5?	Yes	40	0.215	$8.60	$-6.00	-41.1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on August 6?	Yes	17	0.370	$6.23	$-1.85	-22.9%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be appointed by December 31?	No	75	0.081	$6.05	$-28.54	-82.5%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on August 6?	Yes	47	0.125	$5.82	$-5.82	-50.0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on August 5?	No	6	0.865	$4.93	$0.20	+4.2%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on August 6?	No	5	0.710	$3.72	$-0.21	-5.3%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on August 5?	No	5	0.625	$3.09	$-0.27	-8.1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on August 5?	Yes	25	0.120	$2.98	$-5.96	-66.7%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on August 5?	Yes	6	0.495	$2.91	$0.15	+5.3%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 96-97°F on August 5?	No	6	0.505	$2.78	$0.03	+1.0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on August 5?	Yes	12	0.170	$2.04	$-0.96	-32.0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on August 5?	Yes	4	0.410	$1.43	$0.70	+95.2%
Will Eisenkot join the Bennett-Lapid alliance by August 31, 2026?	Yes	20	0.051	$1.03	$-8.57	-89.3%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on August 5?	No	2	0.270	$0.67	$-0.47	-41.3%
Will Nico Schlotterbeck join Manchester City?	Yes	70	0.006	$0.42	$-8.69	-95.4%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on August 5?	Yes	2	0.195	$0.32	$-0.24	-42.7%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on August 5?	Yes	20	0.008	$0.16	$-6.64	-97.6%
Will Aaron Judge win the 2026 American League MVP Award?	Yes	28	0.005	$0.14	$-11.19	-98.7%