| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
22 |
0.225 |
$4.95 |
$-0.99 |
-16.7% |
| Will there be two UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027? |
No |
27 |
0.145 |
$3.91 |
$-2.03 |
-34.1% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? |
No |
6 |
0.545 |
$3.27 |
$0.33 |
+11.2% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? |
Yes |
28 |
0.115 |
$3.22 |
$-2.66 |
-45.2% |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
42 |
0.075 |
$3.19 |
$-2.76 |
-46.4% |
| Base FDV above $2B one day after launch? |
No |
6 |
0.480 |
$2.88 |
$-0.12 |
-4.0% |
| Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? |
No |
5 |
0.515 |
$2.70 |
$-0.24 |
-8.0% |
| Will there be no Somaliland parliamentary election before 2027? |
No |
40 |
0.055 |
$2.20 |
$-3.80 |
-63.3% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? |
Yes |
8 |
0.290 |
$2.17 |
$-0.68 |
-23.7% |
| Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? |
No |
6 |
0.375 |
$2.06 |
$0.08 |
+4.2% |
| Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? |
Yes |
7 |
0.285 |
$1.99 |
$-0.74 |
-26.9% |
| Will Seth Moulton be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Massachusetts? |
Yes |
9 |
0.215 |
$1.94 |
$-0.85 |
-30.6% |
| Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31? |
Yes |
6 |
0.320 |
$1.92 |
$0.18 |
+10.3% |
| Will Core PCE YoY be 3.3% in July? |
Yes |
6 |
0.345 |
$1.90 |
$-0.08 |
-4.2% |
| Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027? |
Yes |
6 |
0.315 |
$1.89 |
$-0.93 |
-33.0% |
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
7 |
0.250 |
$1.87 |
$-0.07 |
-3.8% |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of September 2026? |
Yes |
5 |
0.355 |
$1.77 |
$-0.12 |
-6.6% |
| Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 1.0% and 1.2%? |
Yes |
5 |
0.315 |
$1.57 |
$-0.28 |
-14.9% |
| Will Ted Cruz be the first listed Republican to announce a run for President in 2028? |
Yes |
9 |
0.175 |
$1.57 |
$-1.40 |
-47.0% |
| Will Dalia Al-Aqidi be the MN-05 Republican nominee? |
No |
6 |
0.285 |
$1.57 |
$-0.30 |
-16.2% |
| Will XRP reach $1.20 in August? |
Yes |
6 |
0.280 |
$1.54 |
$-0.44 |
-22.2% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher? |
Yes |
7 |
0.215 |
$1.50 |
$-0.39 |
-20.4% |
| Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31? |
Yes |
18 |
0.060 |
$1.08 |
$-4.86 |
-81.8% |
| Iran full airspace closure by August 31? |
Yes |
8 |
0.110 |
$0.92 |
$-2.02 |
-68.6% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31? |
Yes |
18 |
0.034 |
$0.61 |
$-3.89 |
-86.4% |