| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
22 |
0.225 |
$4.95 |
$-0.99 |
-16.7% |
| Will there be two UK Prime Ministers by end of 2027? |
No |
27 |
0.145 |
$3.91 |
$-2.03 |
-34.1% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? |
Yes |
28 |
0.115 |
$3.22 |
$-2.66 |
-45.2% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? |
No |
6 |
0.535 |
$3.21 |
$0.27 |
+9.2% |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
42 |
0.075 |
$3.19 |
$-2.76 |
-46.4% |
| Base FDV above $2B one day after launch? |
No |
6 |
0.485 |
$2.91 |
$-0.09 |
-3.0% |
| Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting? |
No |
5 |
0.520 |
$2.73 |
$-0.21 |
-7.1% |
| Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31? |
Yes |
6 |
0.410 |
$2.46 |
$0.72 |
+41.4% |
| Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? |
No |
6 |
0.415 |
$2.28 |
$0.30 |
+15.3% |
| Will there be no Somaliland parliamentary election before 2027? |
No |
40 |
0.055 |
$2.20 |
$-3.80 |
-63.3% |
| Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? |
Yes |
7 |
0.285 |
$1.99 |
$-0.74 |
-26.9% |
| Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027? |
Yes |
6 |
0.315 |
$1.89 |
$-0.93 |
-33.0% |
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
7 |
0.245 |
$1.84 |
$-0.11 |
-5.8% |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of September 2026? |
Yes |
5 |
0.355 |
$1.77 |
$-0.12 |
-6.6% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? |
Yes |
8 |
0.235 |
$1.76 |
$-1.09 |
-38.2% |
| Will Seth Moulton be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Massachusetts? |
Yes |
9 |
0.180 |
$1.62 |
$-1.17 |
-41.9% |
| Will Germany GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 1.0% and 1.2%? |
Yes |
5 |
0.315 |
$1.57 |
$-0.28 |
-14.9% |
| Will Core PCE YoY be 3.3% in July? |
Yes |
6 |
0.285 |
$1.57 |
$-0.41 |
-20.9% |
| Will Dalia Al-Aqidi be the MN-05 Republican nominee? |
No |
6 |
0.285 |
$1.57 |
$-0.30 |
-16.2% |
| Will XRP reach $1.20 in August? |
Yes |
6 |
0.280 |
$1.54 |
$-0.44 |
-22.2% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher? |
Yes |
7 |
0.215 |
$1.50 |
$-0.39 |
-20.4% |
| Will Ted Cruz be the first listed Republican to announce a run for President in 2028? |
Yes |
9 |
0.155 |
$1.40 |
$-1.57 |
-53.0% |
| Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31? |
Yes |
18 |
0.050 |
$0.90 |
$-5.04 |
-84.8% |
| Iran full airspace closure by August 31? |
Yes |
8 |
0.105 |
$0.88 |
$-2.06 |
-70.0% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31? |
Yes |
18 |
0.028 |
$0.49 |
$-4.00 |
-89.0% |