| Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13? |
Yes |
750 |
0.953 |
$714.38 |
$54.38 |
+8.2% |
| Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13? |
No |
700 |
0.956 |
$669.20 |
$54.30 |
+8.8% |
| Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? |
No |
600 |
0.997 |
$597.90 |
$118.67 |
+24.8% |
| Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? |
No |
560 |
0.954 |
$533.95 |
$14.88 |
+2.9% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30? |
Yes |
500 |
0.755 |
$377.50 |
$59.51 |
+18.7% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of September 2026? |
Yes |
570 |
0.610 |
$347.70 |
$18.80 |
+5.7% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? |
Yes |
403 |
0.835 |
$336.10 |
$35.75 |
+11.9% |
| Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of September 2026? |
Yes |
355 |
0.750 |
$266.25 |
$49.52 |
+22.9% |
| Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? |
Yes |
413 |
0.455 |
$187.81 |
$-1.13 |
-0.6% |
| Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026? |
Yes |
200 |
0.845 |
$169.02 |
$10.21 |
+6.4% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 31, 2026? |
Yes |
180 |
0.903 |
$162.63 |
$5.49 |
+3.5% |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of September 2026? |
Yes |
440 |
0.355 |
$156.20 |
$82.02 |
+110.6% |
| Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026? |
No |
571 |
0.255 |
$145.56 |
$30.91 |
+27.0% |
| Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? |
No |
241 |
0.595 |
$143.59 |
$1.24 |
+0.9% |
| Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30? |
Yes |
233 |
0.390 |
$90.87 |
$13.35 |
+17.2% |
| Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? |
Yes |
107 |
0.780 |
$83.68 |
$17.45 |
+26.3% |
| AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027? |
Yes |
92 |
0.895 |
$82.22 |
$5.08 |
+6.6% |
| Will any other model be the best AI model on August 10, 2026? |
Yes |
60 |
0.928 |
$55.71 |
$7.27 |
+15.0% |
| Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026? |
No |
58 |
0.957 |
$55.57 |
$1.37 |
+2.5% |
| Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30? |
No |
56 |
0.860 |
$47.84 |
$3.73 |
+8.5% |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026? |
Yes |
202 |
0.165 |
$33.29 |
$4.29 |
+14.8% |
| Will Z.ai be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026? |
Yes |
223 |
0.145 |
$32.34 |
$7.63 |
+30.9% |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of August 2026? |
Yes |
700 |
0.038 |
$26.95 |
$9.05 |
+50.6% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490? |
Yes |
30 |
0.777 |
$23.33 |
$0.41 |
+1.8% |
| Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? |
Yes |
49 |
0.450 |
$21.99 |
$0.84 |
+4.0% |