PnL (30d)

+$1,036

last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

+$1,172

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

+1.5%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

74%

715W / 250L · 676 open

Win Return (30d)

78%

1,277W / 359L · 5 open

Trades (30d)

1,641

across 166 markets · ~10 per market

EV / position

+$13.11

avg win $32 · loss $39

Profit Factor

2.28

$1,848 won / $812 lost

Reward / Risk

0.82

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$152

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	74.1% 715W/250L	166	$91,958
🤖 Tech	9.3% 7W/68L	17	$4,875
🏛 Politics	—	5	$2,754
💵 Economy	0.0% 0W/4L	4	$893

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

46 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?	Yes	750	0.954	$715.12	$55.13	+8.4%
Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?	No	700	0.967	$676.55	$61.65	+10.0%
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	No	600	0.996	$597.60	$118.37	+24.7%
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	560	0.953	$533.11	$14.04	+2.7%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	Yes	500	0.755	$377.50	$59.51	+18.7%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of September 2026?	Yes	570	0.590	$336.30	$7.40	+2.3%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	403	0.835	$336.10	$35.75	+11.9%
Will Anthropic have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?	Yes	355	0.750	$266.25	$49.52	+22.9%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	413	0.455	$187.81	$-1.13	-0.6%
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	200	0.845	$169.02	$10.21	+6.4%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 31, 2026?	Yes	180	0.902	$162.45	$5.31	+3.4%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of September 2026?	Yes	440	0.355	$156.20	$82.02	+110.6%
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	571	0.255	$145.56	$30.91	+27.0%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	241	0.595	$143.59	$1.24	+0.9%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	Yes	233	0.390	$90.87	$13.35	+17.2%
Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	Yes	107	0.780	$83.68	$17.45	+26.3%
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?	Yes	92	0.895	$82.22	$5.08	+6.6%
Will any other model be the best AI model on August 10, 2026?	Yes	60	0.928	$55.71	$7.27	+15.0%
Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	58	0.957	$55.57	$1.37	+2.5%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	No	56	0.860	$47.84	$3.73	+8.5%
Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026?	Yes	202	0.165	$33.29	$4.29	+14.8%
Will Z.ai be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?	Yes	223	0.145	$32.34	$7.63	+30.9%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	700	0.038	$26.95	$9.05	+50.6%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?	Yes	30	0.776	$23.30	$0.38	+1.6%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	Yes	49	0.450	$21.99	$0.84	+4.0%