| Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? |
Yes |
535 |
0.515 |
$275.65 |
$-36.82 |
-11.8% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31? |
No |
246 |
0.964 |
$237.19 |
$-0.08 |
-0.0% |
| Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? |
Yes |
187 |
0.855 |
$159.62 |
$3.40 |
+2.2% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? |
Yes |
199 |
0.795 |
$158.17 |
$1.17 |
+0.7% |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026? |
No |
177 |
0.875 |
$155.08 |
$-1.25 |
-0.8% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? |
No |
164 |
0.935 |
$153.03 |
$1.17 |
+0.8% |
| Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? |
No |
177 |
0.820 |
$145.38 |
$1.81 |
+1.3% |
| Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? |
Yes |
158 |
0.915 |
$144.94 |
$4.98 |
+3.6% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? |
Yes |
168 |
0.810 |
$136.03 |
$4.19 |
+3.2% |
| Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? |
No |
165 |
0.825 |
$135.94 |
$0.82 |
+0.6% |
| Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? |
No |
294 |
0.420 |
$123.44 |
$-39.60 |
-24.3% |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to between 20 and 40 years in prison? |
No |
127 |
0.927 |
$117.67 |
$2.64 |
+2.3% |
| Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? |
No |
155 |
0.750 |
$116.17 |
$0.79 |
+0.7% |
| Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? |
No |
159 |
0.730 |
$116.08 |
$3.67 |
+3.3% |
| Will Russia capture Lyman by September 30, 2026? |
No |
136 |
0.855 |
$115.86 |
$5.15 |
+4.6% |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026? |
No |
139 |
0.794 |
$110.42 |
$-4.35 |
-3.8% |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? |
No |
160 |
0.675 |
$108.12 |
$2.54 |
+2.4% |
| US recession by end of 2026? |
No |
114 |
0.910 |
$103.58 |
$0.94 |
+0.9% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? |
No |
130 |
0.745 |
$96.85 |
$-1.25 |
-1.3% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? |
No |
105 |
0.920 |
$96.67 |
$1.49 |
+1.6% |
| Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? |
No |
133 |
0.715 |
$94.96 |
$-10.22 |
-9.7% |
| Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? |
No |
110 |
0.860 |
$94.60 |
$0.40 |
+0.4% |
| Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027? |
No |
110 |
0.855 |
$94.08 |
$1.44 |
+1.6% |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
99 |
0.930 |
$92.51 |
$0.60 |
+0.6% |
| Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? |
No |
92 |
0.966 |
$89.06 |
$0.02 |
+0.0% |