| Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? |
Yes |
535 |
0.515 |
$275.65 |
$-36.82 |
-11.8% |
| Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? |
Yes |
187 |
0.855 |
$159.62 |
$3.40 |
+2.2% |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026? |
No |
177 |
0.875 |
$155.08 |
$-1.25 |
-0.8% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? |
No |
164 |
0.935 |
$153.03 |
$1.17 |
+0.8% |
| Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? |
Yes |
158 |
0.910 |
$144.14 |
$4.19 |
+3.0% |
| Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? |
No |
165 |
0.825 |
$135.94 |
$0.82 |
+0.6% |
| Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? |
No |
294 |
0.440 |
$129.32 |
$-33.73 |
-20.7% |
| Iran full airspace closure by August 31? |
No |
134 |
0.890 |
$119.34 |
$5.04 |
+4.4% |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to between 20 and 40 years in prison? |
No |
127 |
0.927 |
$117.67 |
$2.64 |
+2.3% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31? |
No |
121 |
0.967 |
$117.05 |
$0.26 |
+0.2% |
| Will Russia capture Lyman by September 30, 2026? |
No |
136 |
0.855 |
$115.86 |
$5.15 |
+4.6% |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? |
No |
160 |
0.675 |
$108.12 |
$2.54 |
+2.4% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? |
No |
105 |
0.930 |
$97.72 |
$2.54 |
+2.7% |
| Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? |
No |
133 |
0.715 |
$94.96 |
$-10.22 |
-9.7% |
| Will Kareem Allam win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election? |
No |
110 |
0.860 |
$94.60 |
$0.40 |
+0.4% |
| Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027? |
No |
110 |
0.855 |
$94.08 |
$1.44 |
+1.6% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? |
No |
126 |
0.745 |
$93.67 |
$-1.27 |
-1.3% |
| Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? |
No |
129 |
0.723 |
$93.21 |
$2.68 |
+3.0% |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
99 |
0.930 |
$92.51 |
$0.60 |
+0.6% |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026? |
No |
119 |
0.765 |
$91.08 |
$-7.70 |
-7.8% |
| Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? |
No |
108 |
0.826 |
$89.55 |
$2.46 |
+2.8% |
| Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? |
No |
92 |
0.966 |
$89.06 |
$0.02 |
+0.0% |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? |
No |
104 |
0.855 |
$88.99 |
$2.08 |
+2.4% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
No |
105 |
0.835 |
$87.58 |
$0.80 |
+0.9% |
| Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by September 30? |
No |
117 |
0.745 |
$87.04 |
$-3.84 |
-4.2% |