| Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? |
No |
491 |
0.685 |
$336.11 |
$33.09 |
+10.9% |
| Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026? |
No |
180 |
0.964 |
$172.95 |
$18.32 |
+11.9% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? |
No |
157 |
0.975 |
$153.00 |
$4.63 |
+3.1% |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? |
No |
172 |
0.865 |
$149.01 |
$8.72 |
+6.2% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
No |
160 |
0.845 |
$135.21 |
$8.26 |
+6.5% |
| Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026? |
No |
144 |
0.885 |
$127.74 |
$5.53 |
+4.5% |
| Fed rate hike in 2026? |
Yes |
204 |
0.625 |
$127.50 |
$-1.76 |
-1.4% |
| Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election? |
Yes |
128 |
0.970 |
$124.54 |
$31.94 |
+34.5% |
| Will GameStop acquire eBay? |
No |
139 |
0.875 |
$121.63 |
$-0.69 |
-0.6% |
| Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026? |
No |
138 |
0.850 |
$117.72 |
$4.89 |
+4.3% |
| Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027? |
No |
117 |
0.956 |
$111.85 |
$1.79 |
+1.6% |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? |
No |
129 |
0.855 |
$110.30 |
$3.93 |
+3.7% |
| Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the #1 searched movie on Google this year? |
No |
130 |
0.830 |
$107.90 |
$-11.70 |
-9.8% |
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? |
No |
116 |
0.925 |
$107.30 |
$5.74 |
+5.7% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31? |
Yes |
133 |
0.805 |
$107.06 |
$15.73 |
+17.2% |
| Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? |
No |
106 |
0.983 |
$104.20 |
$6.68 |
+6.8% |
| Republicans win Trifecta with Senate Supermajority in midterms? |
No |
108 |
0.954 |
$102.96 |
$4.90 |
+5.0% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? |
No |
190 |
0.535 |
$101.49 |
$8.54 |
+9.2% |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31? |
No |
105 |
0.964 |
$101.22 |
$7.77 |
+8.3% |
| Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election? |
No |
95 |
0.987 |
$93.72 |
$4.05 |
+4.5% |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
Yes |
139 |
0.645 |
$89.66 |
$7.29 |
+8.8% |
| Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? |
No |
97 |
0.919 |
$89.19 |
$4.54 |
+5.4% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? |
No |
91 |
0.961 |
$87.68 |
$2.59 |
+3.0% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? |
Yes |
104 |
0.840 |
$87.36 |
$5.03 |
+6.1% |
| Will OpenAI IPO by August 31 2026? |
No |
86 |
0.994 |
$85.36 |
$6.48 |
+8.2% |