Trader
0xc1d31af32690ecc52f9c372d1dc16dea79a77d51
Scoped to Politics — every figure below is this category, last 30 days.
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PnL (30d)
−$20
Politics · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
−$9
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
-9.2%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
23%
26W / 85L · 10 open
Win Return (30d)
21%
26W / 95L
Trades (30d)
121
across 23 markets · ~5 per market
EV / position
−$0.96
avg win $2 · loss $4
Profit Factor
0.55
$25 won / $45 lost
Reward / Risk
0.50
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$3
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $959 · all-time $47,783
By category last 30d
click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Equity curve
realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure
Open positions
9 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
| Market |
Outcome |
Size |
Cur. price |
Current value |
Cash PnL |
% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? |
No |
15 |
0.972 |
$14.82 |
$-0.06 |
-0.4% |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 15? |
Yes |
223 |
0.045 |
$10.05 |
$-15.34 |
-60.4% |
| Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? |
Yes |
24 |
0.353 |
$8.33 |
$-0.44 |
-5.0% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? |
No |
31 |
0.170 |
$5.27 |
$-22.60 |
-81.1% |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31? |
Yes |
36 |
0.090 |
$3.22 |
$-9.91 |
-75.5% |
| Iran full airspace closure by August 15? |
Yes |
29 |
0.060 |
$1.74 |
$-4.05 |
-70.0% |
| Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? |
Yes |
187 |
0.001 |
$0.09 |
$-9.77 |
-99.1% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? |
No |
74 |
0.001 |
$0.04 |
$-13.42 |
-99.7% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3? |
No |
16 |
0.001 |
$0.02 |
$-4.69 |
-99.7% |