PnL (30d)

−$127

last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

−$36

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-19.6%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

36%

87W / 152L · 46 open

Win Return (30d)

35%

100W / 184L · 1 open

Trades (30d)

285

across 89 markets · ~3 per market

EV / position

−$1.61

avg win $2 · loss $4

Profit Factor

0.35

$69 won / $196 lost

Reward / Risk

0.44

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$29

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	36.4% 87W/152L	89	$919
🏛 Politics	33.3% 1W/2L	3	$15

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

9 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?	No	15	0.975	$14.86	$-0.02	-0.1%
Israel closes its airspace by August 15?	Yes	223	0.050	$11.17	$-14.22	-56.0%
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	24	0.356	$8.40	$-0.36	-4.2%
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?	No	31	0.205	$6.35	$-21.52	-77.2%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?	Yes	36	0.090	$3.22	$-9.91	-75.5%
Iran full airspace closure by August 15?	Yes	29	0.065	$1.88	$-3.91	-67.5%
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	Yes	187	0.001	$0.09	$-9.77	-99.1%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?	No	74	0.001	$0.04	$-13.42	-99.7%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?	No	16	0.001	$0.02	$-4.69	-99.7%