PnL (30d)

+$154

last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

+$41

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

+2.6%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

52%

587W / 545L · 1,288 open

Win Return (30d)

54%

1,300W / 1,109L · 11 open

Trades (30d)

2,420

across 268 markets · ~9 per market

EV / position

+$1.35

avg win $14 · loss $8

Profit Factor

1.29

$683 won / $529 lost

Reward / Risk

1.65

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$61

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	51.9% 587W/545L	268	$11,609
🏛 Politics	56.5% 35W/27L	61	$1,012
₿ Crypto	—	3	$209
💵 Economy	—	3	$217

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

159 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	No	377	0.775	$292.55	$11.57	+4.1%
Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit China?	Yes	300	0.755	$226.49	$43.50	+23.8%
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?	Yes	235	0.535	$125.61	$-10.27	-7.6%
Will Russia capture Bilytske by September 30, 2026?	Yes	200	0.465	$92.78	$2.79	+3.1%
Will Russia capture Vodianske by December 31?	Yes	138	0.595	$82.08	$13.11	+19.0%
Will Ukraine re-enter Myrnohrad by December 31?	No	85	0.900	$76.59	$6.83	+9.8%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in August?	No	105	0.635	$66.67	$8.98	+15.6%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30?	Yes	76	0.785	$59.57	$-2.43	-3.9%
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	143	0.415	$59.18	$18.10	+44.1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?	No	66	0.885	$58.39	$0.82	+1.4%
Will Russia capture Novyi Donbas by October 31?	No	96	0.570	$54.64	$-2.22	-3.9%
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?	No	60	0.835	$50.49	$1.59	+3.2%
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by December 31?	Yes	83	0.555	$46.27	$12.13	+35.5%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	165	0.261	$42.97	$-3.28	-7.1%
Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by December 31?	No	98	0.435	$42.45	$-2.95	-6.5%
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	90	0.455	$40.95	$-2.50	-5.8%
Will Russia capture Novyi Donbas by August 31?	No	51	0.805	$40.77	$3.02	+8.0%
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?	No	44	0.905	$40.14	$0.61	+1.5%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31?	Yes	105	0.375	$39.27	$-2.14	-5.2%
Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	96	0.385	$37.08	$8.69	+30.6%
Will Russia capture Bilytske by December 31, 2026?	No	116	0.285	$33.13	$-25.88	-43.9%
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by December 31?	Yes	47	0.680	$31.77	$2.53	+8.6%
Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31?	Yes	44	0.720	$31.40	$6.89	+28.1%
Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by December 31?	Yes	65	0.475	$30.79	$5.47	+21.6%
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	56	0.545	$30.44	$3.88	+14.6%