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Trader leaderboard/rocky42014

rocky42014

0xbb9f224569285cb57f433bbe2e71f9b8a11b557b
Scoped to Politics — every figure below is this category, last 30 days. ← All markets
PnL (30d)
+$535
Politics · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
+$38
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
+6.5%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
79%
377W / 99L · 39 open
Win Return (30d)
81%
415W / 100L
Trades (30d)
515
across 16 markets · ~32 per market
EV / position
+$44.62
avg win $141 · loss $24
Profit Factor
4.13
$707 won / $171 lost
Reward / Risk
5.78
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$422
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $24,672 · all-time $10,502,290

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 52.5% 3,914W/3,545L 495 $192,028
🌤 Weather 33.1% 113W/228L 39 $3,695
⚽ Sports 64.2% 88W/49L 28 $4,670
🎬 Culture 56.0% 93W/73L 12 $10,803
🏛 Politics 82.7% 350W/73L 10 $14,403
🤖 Tech 4 $161
💵 Economy 0.0% 0W/5L 2 $151
🔬 Science 1 $110

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

87 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? No 409 0.640 $261.50 $9.82 +3.9%
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year? No 283 0.905 $256.11 $7.07 +2.8%
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election? No 862 0.284 $245.29 $23.48 +10.6%
Will Puffpaw launch a token by March 31, 2027? No 156 0.645 $100.62 $42.89 +74.3%
Will "The Pitt" win 2 or 3 awards at the Emmys? Yes 256 0.390 $99.78 $28.14 +39.3%
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No 207 0.460 $95.15 $-74.13 -43.8%
Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31? No 142 0.665 $94.74 $3.36 +3.7%
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No 98 0.967 $94.53 $32.17 +51.6%
Will "The Pitt" win 4 or 5 awards at the Emmys? No 180 0.520 $93.74 $-3.61 -3.7%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on August 5? Yes 155 0.575 $89.12 $-9.63 -9.8%
Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win on 2026-07-16? No 131 0.635 $83.18 $3.27 +4.1%
Will the US capture another world leader in 2026? Yes 1,250 0.065 $81.23 $-103.00 -55.9%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? No 102 0.786 $79.91 $21.81 +37.5%
Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? No 192 0.410 $78.80 $-20.86 -20.9%
Will "Widow's Bay" win 2 or 3 awards at the Emmys? Yes 180 0.415 $74.50 $2.69 +3.7%
Will "The Pitt" win 4 or 5 awards at the Emmys? Yes 137 0.480 $65.60 $4.10 +6.7%
Will "The Pitt" win 6 or 7 awards at the Emmys? No 70 0.903 $63.24 $1.64 +2.7%
Will the Republican Party win the KS-04 House seat? No 665 0.085 $56.51 $-37.91 -40.2%
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after September 2026 meeting? No 410 0.115 $47.13 $-33.48 -41.5%
Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by August 31, 2026? No 46 0.990 $45.82 $0.76 +1.7%
Will Tom Aspinall be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? No 93 0.475 $44.17 $4.18 +10.5%
Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than $100B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? No 43 0.996 $42.97 $0.15 +0.4%
Will the US federal government take a stake in Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited? Yes 300 0.140 $42.00 $-24.00 -36.4%
Will the US federal government take a stake in The Boeing Company? Yes 264 0.155 $40.97 $-38.33 -48.3%
Situational Awareness raises new capital by August 31? Yes 182 0.220 $40.06 $-20.15 -33.5%