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Trader leaderboard/42012

42012

0xba8dd483ab52bf7fd1877ac323a5c2ae7747009d
Scoped to Weather — every figure below is this category, last 30 days. ← All markets
PnL (30d)
−$164
Weather · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
$0
no open positions
ROI (30d)
-7.5%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
28%
112W / 293L
Win Return (30d)
28%
112W / 293L
Trades (30d)
405
across 32 markets · ~13 per market
EV / position
−$5.13
avg win $20 · loss $17
Profit Factor
0.55
$204 won / $368 lost
Reward / Risk
1.22
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$9
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $13,159 · all-time $9,856,705

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 51.0% 2,247W/2,163L 404 $118,042
🏛 Politics 76.3% 45W/14L 14 $4,250
💵 Economy 74.7% 65W/22L 11 $2,343
🎬 Culture 71.4% 45W/18L 11 $1,241
🌤 Weather 86.0% 92W/15L 10 $1,021
₿ Crypto 86.7% 65W/10L 9 $2,292
⚽ Sports 100.0% 32W/0L 9 $771

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

97 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Base FDV above $6B one day after launch? Yes 979 0.315 $308.53 $-5.40 -1.7%
Will Ali Khamenei be the #1 searched passing on Google this year? No 390 0.705 $274.66 $43.03 +18.6%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 361 0.750 $270.25 $22.42 +9.0%
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House No 297 0.885 $262.85 $13.37 +5.4%
Will Bradley Whitford – “The Diplomat” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding guest actor in a drama series? No 334 0.746 $249.00 $-0.17 -0.1%
Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? No 390 0.615 $239.84 $-9.75 -3.9%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 232 0.675 $156.68 $15.08 +10.7%
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? No 206 0.715 $147.50 $15.49 +11.7%
NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027? Yes 913 0.145 $132.33 $-97.99 -42.5%
Base FDV above $10B one day after launch? Yes 473 0.265 $125.43 $-48.90 -28.1%
Base FDV above $12B one day after launch? Yes 657 0.185 $121.55 $-3.29 -2.6%
Will Colman Domingo – “Euphoria” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding guest actor in a drama series? Yes 300 0.355 $106.50 $1.50 +1.4%
Will there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on August 31? No 163 0.625 $101.61 $1.04 +1.0%
Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 8% and 10%? No 138 0.715 $98.54 $0.69 +0.7%
Will any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? Yes 299 0.325 $97.31 $-6.60 -6.4%
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? No 234 0.396 $92.64 $4.50 +5.1%
Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit China? No 839 0.100 $83.93 $-102.61 -55.0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 255 0.325 $82.76 $-11.48 -12.2%
Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? Yes 300 0.275 $82.50 $16.50 +25.0%
Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals? No 93 0.868 $80.68 $0.84 +1.1%
Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026? Yes 299 0.265 $79.24 $1.54 +2.0%
Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? No 90 0.785 $70.99 $17.21 +32.0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 260 0.251 $65.23 $-13.94 -17.6%
Will Ralph Norman be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina? Yes 300 0.215 $64.48 $-31.30 -32.7%
Will Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes 299 0.215 $64.38 $-0.01 -0.0%