| Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
1,200 |
0.875 |
$1,050.00 |
$-18.00 |
-1.7% |
| Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? |
No |
1,200 |
0.365 |
$438.00 |
$114.00 |
+35.2% |
| Will Moonshot be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026? |
Yes |
432 |
0.694 |
$299.40 |
$108.75 |
+57.0% |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
Yes |
1,058 |
0.271 |
$286.21 |
$-13.79 |
-4.6% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? |
Yes |
276 |
0.875 |
$241.50 |
$59.34 |
+32.6% |
| Situational Awareness raises new capital by August 31? |
No |
270 |
0.775 |
$209.25 |
$22.95 |
+12.3% |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? |
Yes |
800 |
0.260 |
$208.00 |
$-96.00 |
-31.6% |
| Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? |
Yes |
456 |
0.345 |
$157.42 |
$93.78 |
+147.4% |
| U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? |
Yes |
740 |
0.205 |
$151.70 |
$-45.90 |
-23.2% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? |
No |
360 |
0.335 |
$120.60 |
$-70.20 |
-36.8% |
| Kash Patel out by December 31? |
No |
147 |
0.790 |
$116.37 |
$16.13 |
+16.1% |
| Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? |
Yes |
708 |
0.155 |
$109.76 |
$3.54 |
+3.3% |
| Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? |
Yes |
690 |
0.115 |
$79.35 |
$-31.05 |
-28.1% |
| Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? |
Yes |
15,000 |
0.003 |
$37.50 |
$-7.50 |
-16.7% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026? |
Yes |
990 |
0.036 |
$35.64 |
$-73.26 |
-67.3% |
| Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? |
Yes |
3 |
0.320 |
$0.89 |
$0.03 |
+3.2% |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
98 |
0.009 |
$0.88 |
$0.00 |
+0.0% |
| NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? |
Yes |
6 |
0.135 |
$0.78 |
$0.03 |
+3.8% |