| Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026? |
Yes |
1,200 |
0.895 |
$1,074.00 |
$6.00 |
+0.6% |
| Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026? |
No |
1,200 |
0.305 |
$366.00 |
$42.00 |
+13.0% |
| Will Moonshot be the second-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of August 2026? |
Yes |
432 |
0.639 |
$275.87 |
$85.22 |
+44.7% |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? |
Yes |
1,058 |
0.259 |
$273.51 |
$-26.49 |
-8.8% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? |
Yes |
320 |
0.785 |
$251.20 |
$59.20 |
+30.8% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? |
Yes |
276 |
0.835 |
$230.46 |
$48.30 |
+26.5% |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? |
Yes |
800 |
0.265 |
$212.00 |
$-92.00 |
-30.3% |
| Situational Awareness raises new capital by August 31? |
No |
270 |
0.780 |
$210.60 |
$24.30 |
+13.0% |
| Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? |
Yes |
456 |
0.445 |
$203.10 |
$139.47 |
+219.2% |
| U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? |
Yes |
740 |
0.210 |
$155.40 |
$-42.20 |
-21.4% |
| Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? |
Yes |
708 |
0.165 |
$116.84 |
$10.62 |
+10.0% |
| Kash Patel out by December 31? |
No |
147 |
0.790 |
$116.37 |
$16.13 |
+16.1% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? |
No |
360 |
0.315 |
$113.40 |
$-77.40 |
-40.6% |
| Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? |
Yes |
690 |
0.115 |
$79.35 |
$-31.05 |
-28.1% |
| Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? |
Yes |
15,000 |
0.003 |
$37.50 |
$-7.50 |
-16.7% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026? |
Yes |
990 |
0.036 |
$36.13 |
$-72.77 |
-66.8% |
| Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? |
Yes |
3 |
0.450 |
$1.25 |
$0.39 |
+45.1% |
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country by September 30, 2026? |
Yes |
98 |
0.009 |
$0.83 |
$-0.05 |
-5.5% |
| NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? |
Yes |
6 |
0.130 |
$0.75 |
$0.00 |
+0.0% |