CaptainCoinflip
0xb8fe807aa951e35af53fd0fee36abc303864ce76
Scoped to Weather — every figure below is this category, last 30 days.
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PnL (30d)
+$162
Weather · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
−$2
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
+3.8%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
47%
39W / 44L · 1 open
Win Return (30d)
46%
39W / 45L
Trades (30d)
84
across 7 markets · ~12 per market
EV / position
+$26.93
avg win $115 · loss $17
Profit Factor
3.37
$230 won / $68 lost
Reward / Risk
6.75
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
$0
no drawdown
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $107,757 · all-time $5,196,631
By category last 30d
click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Equity curve
realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure
Open positions
6 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
| Market |
Outcome |
Size |
Cur. price |
Current value |
Cash PnL |
% |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House |
No |
50,000 |
0.989 |
$49,425.00 |
$24,425.00 |
+97.7% |
| Will Jonathan Hofeller be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO? |
No |
1,020 |
0.789 |
$804.57 |
$-193.39 |
-19.4% |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House |
Yes |
50,000 |
0.011 |
$575.00 |
$-24,425.00 |
-97.7% |
| Will there be 6 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from August 3 - August 9? |
No |
500 |
0.800 |
$400.00 |
$34.00 |
+9.3% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? |
Yes |
1,000 |
0.300 |
$300.00 |
$173.57 |
+137.3% |
| Will there be Houthi military action against Israel by August 31, 2026? |
Yes |
1,600 |
0.065 |
$103.98 |
$-43.98 |
-29.7% |