kerakles
0xb38ea393a17280ebcfd9be6b47b161d5cdb8272b
Scoped to Weather — every figure below is this category, last 30 days.
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PnL (30d)
+$188
Weather · last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
+$0
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
+37.1%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
12%
31W / 219L · 5 open
Win Return (30d)
14%
35W / 220L
Trades (30d)
255
across 40 markets · ~6 per market
EV / position
+$4.94
avg win $79 · loss $12
Profit Factor
1.51
$555 won / $367 lost
Reward / Risk
6.70
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$75
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $14,449 · all-time $655,954
By category last 30d
click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Equity curve
realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure
Open positions
7 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
| Market |
Outcome |
Size |
Cur. price |
Current value |
Cash PnL |
% |
| Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 35°C on August 5? |
Yes |
900 |
0.101 |
$90.50 |
$68.50 |
+311.4% |
| Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 36°C on August 5? |
Yes |
62 |
0.655 |
$40.59 |
$37.59 |
+1253.1% |
| Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 29°C or below on August 6? |
Yes |
700 |
0.015 |
$10.50 |
$3.50 |
+50.0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 33°C on August 5? |
Yes |
1,486 |
0.001 |
$0.74 |
$-11.98 |
-94.2% |
| Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C on August 5? |
Yes |
1,101 |
0.001 |
$0.55 |
$-10.69 |
-95.1% |
| Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 34°C on August 5? |
Yes |
1,100 |
0.001 |
$0.55 |
$-20.30 |
-97.4% |
| Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C or below on August 5? |
Yes |
1,000 |
0.001 |
$0.50 |
$-1.50 |
-75.0% |