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Trader leaderboard/hard

hard

0xb1e294e978493fd1bc642c674ade517d07dc666d
PnL (30d)
+$24
last 30 days · trade-based
Open (30d)
+$57
unresolved · marked to price
ROI (30d)
+0.4%
PnL ÷ 30d buy volume
Win Resolved (30d)
72%
11,804W / 4,498L · 6,743 open
Win Return (30d)
77%
17,528W / 5,300L · 217 open
Trades (30d)
23,045
across 868 markets · ~27 per market
EV / position
+$0.04
avg win $1 · loss $1
Profit Factor
1.13
$209 won / $185 lost
Reward / Risk
1.10
avg win ÷ avg loss
Max Drawdown
−$11
peak → trough (30d)
Volume (exact Polymarket) · 30d $26,378 · all-time $543,160

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills
Category Win Resolved (per trade) Markets Volume
🌐 All markets 72.4% 11,804W/4,498L 868 $11,877
🏛 Politics 32.9% 114W/233L 84 $714
⚽ Sports 0.0% 0W/11L 39 $219
🎬 Culture 7.3% 20W/254L 35 $280
💵 Economy 98.4% 184W/3L 29 $234
₿ Crypto 98.4% 181W/3L 18 $144
🔬 Science 7 $28
🤖 Tech 100.0% 3W/0L 5 $42
🌤 Weather 4 $5

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

114 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL
Market Outcome Size Cur. price Current value Cash PnL %
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 40 0.045 $1.80 $0.12 +7.1%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? Yes 20 0.077 $1.54 $-0.24 -13.5%
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-23 House seat? Yes 20 0.060 $1.21 $-0.03 -2.4%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman by September 30, 2026? Yes 20 0.054 $1.09 $-0.43 -28.3%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by August 31? Yes 20 0.054 $1.08 $-0.12 -10.0%
Will Iran target Ukraine by August 31, 2026? Yes 40 0.024 $0.96 $-0.04 -4.0%
Will Russia capture Kucheriv Yar by August 31? Yes 20 0.047 $0.94 $-0.20 -17.2%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 20 0.045 $0.91 $-0.11 -10.8%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of August 2026? Yes 20 0.038 $0.77 $-0.03 -3.7%
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 20 0.034 $0.68 $-0.10 -12.8%
Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026? Yes 40 0.015 $0.62 $0.00 +0.0%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31? Yes 20 0.031 $0.62 $0.02 +3.3%
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by August 31? Yes 20 0.030 $0.60 $0.12 +25.0%
Iran leadership change by August 31? Yes 25 0.023 $0.58 $0.11 +22.8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? Yes 17 0.032 $0.54 $0.02 +3.2%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? Yes 20 0.024 $0.48 $-0.04 -7.7%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026? Yes 20 0.021 $0.43 $-0.05 -10.8%
Foreign intervention in Gaza by August 31? Yes 6 0.067 $0.43 $0.00 +0.7%
Will Donald Trump announce a presidential run before 2027? Yes 5 0.074 $0.34 $-0.03 -8.0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Yes 7 0.051 $0.34 $0.03 +9.7%
Hengam Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? Yes 20 0.017 $0.34 $0.00 +0.0%
Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2026 Men's US Open? Yes 20 0.017 $0.33 $0.03 +10.0%
Modi out by December 31, 2026? Yes 4 0.070 $0.31 $0.10 +47.8%
Iran invades Kuwait by August 31? Yes 19 0.017 $0.31 $-0.16 -34.0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in August? Yes 20 0.015 $0.30 $0.04 +15.3%