PnL (30d)

−$198

last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

−$66

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-10.1%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

45%

36W / 44L · 19 open

Win Return (30d)

38%

38W / 61L

Trades (30d)

99

across 79 markets · ~1 per market

EV / position

−$3.14

avg win $36 · loss $27

Profit Factor

0.81

$868 won / $1,066 lost

Reward / Risk

1.32

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$35

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	45.0% 36W/44L	79	$2,962
⚽ Sports	50.0% 1W/1L	4	$53
🏛 Politics	—	1	$9

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

31 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will the iPhone 18 Pro cost at least $1200?	Yes	72	0.870	$62.58	$12.58	+25.2%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31	No	50	0.835	$41.75	$16.25	+63.7%
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?	No	56	0.670	$37.22	$17.22	+86.1%
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	70	0.522	$36.68	$-0.32	-0.9%
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?	Yes	100	0.365	$36.50	$-0.50	-1.4%
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31?	Yes	76	0.370	$27.93	$-2.06	-6.9%
Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Yes	51	0.355	$18.23	$-0.77	-4.1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	40	0.335	$13.40	$-0.60	-4.3%
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Yes	86	0.145	$12.43	$-17.57	-58.6%
Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026?	Yes	368	0.034	$12.32	$-7.68	-38.4%
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	21	0.535	$11.33	$1.83	+19.3%
Will Manchester United win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Yes	92	0.115	$10.54	$-0.46	-4.2%
Will the iPhone 18 Pro cost at least $1300?	Yes	109	0.094	$10.21	$-8.79	-46.3%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31	Yes	58	0.165	$9.55	$-15.95	-62.5%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	Yes	100	0.095	$9.50	$0.50	+5.6%
Will Iran target Ukraine by September 30, 2026?	Yes	157	0.055	$8.64	$-2.36	-21.4%
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?	No	45	0.095	$4.32	$-25.68	-85.6%
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	Yes	157	0.022	$3.54	$-7.46	-67.9%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by September 30?	Yes	100	0.035	$3.50	$-4.50	-56.2%
Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Yes	26	0.115	$3.04	$-1.46	-32.4%
Spain accuses Morocco of facilitating Ceuta migrant wave by August 31?	Yes	78	0.036	$2.79	$-7.21	-72.1%
Will Dune: Messiah be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Yes	414	0.005	$2.07	$-0.93	-30.9%
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $80?	Yes	24	0.065	$1.56	$-4.44	-73.9%
Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Yes	1,000	0.002	$1.50	$-3.50	-70.0%
Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	42	0.031	$1.32	$-0.08	-6.1%