PnL (30d)

−$9

last 30 days · trade-based

Open (30d)

+$9

unresolved · marked to price

ROI (30d)

-0.5%

PnL ÷ 30d buy volume

Win Resolved (30d)

38%

11W / 18L · 46 open

Win Return (30d)

53%

40W / 35L

Trades (30d)

75

across 30 markets · ~2 per market

EV / position

−$0.62

avg win $14 · loss $6

Profit Factor

0.87

$55 won / $64 lost

Reward / Risk

2.16

avg win ÷ avg loss

Max Drawdown

−$0

peak → trough (30d)

By category last 30d

click a category to scope this profile to it · All markets resets · per-trade win rate, live from the last 30d of fills

Category	Win Resolved (per trade)	Markets	Volume
🌐 All markets	37.9% 11W/18L	30	$2,850
🏛 Politics	—	5	$541

Equity curve

realized PnL over visible trades · last 30d · a trend, not the exact figure

Open positions

20 unresolved · live from Polymarket · unrealized, NOT in realized PnL

Market	Outcome	Size	Cur. price	Current value	Cash PnL	%
Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	No	365	0.875	$319.39	$6.39	+2.0%
Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	Yes	137	0.385	$52.68	$7.68	+17.1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	53	0.675	$35.53	$5.53	+18.4%
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	Yes	81	0.285	$23.13	$-0.08	-0.3%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	37	0.298	$10.90	$0.89	+8.9%
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	20	0.522	$10.70	$0.70	+7.0%
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	Yes	60	0.175	$10.53	$-3.09	-22.7%
Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes?	Yes	11	0.620	$7.02	$1.02	+17.0%
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	23	0.255	$5.98	$0.88	+17.3%
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	131	0.033	$4.33	$0.33	+8.1%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?	Yes	10	0.395	$3.80	$-1.20	-24.0%
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	25	0.135	$3.38	$0.38	+12.5%
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?	Yes	8	0.285	$2.42	$-2.59	-51.7%
Will Régis Gaudreault win the 2026 Chicoutimi—Le Fjord by-election?	Yes	32	0.068	$2.17	$0.17	+8.5%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	6	0.315	$1.85	$0.85	+85.3%
Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026?	Yes	19	0.054	$1.01	$0.01	+0.9%
Will the next UK election be called by December 31, 2026?	Yes	6	0.155	$0.93	$-0.71	-43.3%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	23	0.037	$0.87	$-0.13	-12.8%
Will the 2026 United Left primary for the 2027 French presidential election be canceled?	No	10	0.078	$0.78	$-0.22	-22.0%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	1	0.037	$0.04	$-0.03	-44.8%