| Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? |
Yes |
269 |
0.780 |
$209.88 |
$163.47 |
+352.2% |
| Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1600 by December 31? |
No |
190 |
0.900 |
$171.28 |
$31.28 |
+22.3% |
| Will any AI model reach 1550 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? |
No |
180 |
0.940 |
$169.29 |
$19.29 |
+12.9% |
| Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026? |
Yes |
184 |
0.865 |
$159.30 |
$39.30 |
+32.7% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1510? |
No |
166 |
0.917 |
$151.91 |
$1.91 |
+1.3% |
| Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? |
No |
171 |
0.825 |
$140.99 |
$21.79 |
+18.3% |
| Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? |
No |
138 |
0.977 |
$134.72 |
$14.72 |
+12.3% |
| Will a Chinese company have one of the top 3 AI models by December 31? |
No |
228 |
0.580 |
$132.19 |
$-32.91 |
-19.9% |
| Will any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026? |
No |
113 |
0.910 |
$102.91 |
$2.91 |
+2.9% |
| Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? |
No |
110 |
0.920 |
$101.10 |
$1.10 |
+1.1% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 10, 2026? |
No |
161 |
0.618 |
$99.48 |
$20.66 |
+26.2% |
| Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? |
No |
100 |
0.885 |
$88.49 |
$3.50 |
+4.1% |
| Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1650 by December 31? |
No |
95 |
0.925 |
$88.10 |
$8.10 |
+10.1% |
| New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? |
No |
87 |
0.955 |
$83.44 |
$3.19 |
+4.0% |
| Will any AI model reach 1600 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026? |
No |
115 |
0.713 |
$81.95 |
$-18.05 |
-18.0% |
| GTA 6 launch postponed again? |
No |
75 |
0.895 |
$67.56 |
$7.55 |
+12.6% |
| Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026? |
Yes |
83 |
0.785 |
$65.23 |
$32.40 |
+98.7% |
| Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? |
No |
60 |
0.962 |
$57.69 |
$15.69 |
+37.4% |
| Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of August 2026? |
Yes |
66 |
0.875 |
$57.57 |
$7.57 |
+15.1% |
| Will Meta be the third-best AI lab at the end of August 2026? |
No |
64 |
0.895 |
$57.37 |
$32.37 |
+129.5% |
| Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026? |
No |
63 |
0.905 |
$56.78 |
$19.78 |
+53.4% |
| Will any AI model reach 1600 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026? |
No |
69 |
0.815 |
$56.28 |
$6.28 |
+12.6% |
| Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? |
No |
59 |
0.925 |
$54.41 |
$4.41 |
+8.8% |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? |
No |
55 |
0.962 |
$52.54 |
$2.54 |
+5.1% |
| Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30? |
No |
55 |
0.954 |
$52.39 |
$2.39 |
+4.8% |